Elon Musk had a distinct note of concern about the current economic climate, particularly the high-interest rate environment, during the 2023 third-quarter earnings call.
Tesla's earnings dropped by 37% from a year earlier, marking the smallest profit in two years. The company's third-quarter revenue saw a 9% boost from the previous year. However, Tesla fell short of Wall Street expectations on both fronts.
The company's profit margins have also slimmed. Its gross margin stood at 17.9%, a seven percentage point dip from a year ago. The adjusted automotive margin, a metric closely watched by industry experts, fell by nearly 11 percentage points to about 18%.
Interest Rates and Car Affordability
Musk began by highlighting that buying a car boils down to the monthly payment for most people. "The vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment... as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally," Musk stressed.
With rising interest rates, a larger portion of the monthly payment goes toward interest, making it difficult for many to afford the car. He stresses, "If interest rates keep rising, you just fundamentally reduce affordability."
This is a particular concern for Tesla, as they are tracking for the Model Y to be the best-selling car globally, not just in revenue but unit volume. Musk explains that high-interest rates can reduce the affordability of their vehicles, likening rising interest rates to an increase in the car's price.
Listen to Replay of the Earnings Call
Historical Lessons from 2009
Musk's concerns are not unfounded. He vividly recalls 2009 when General Motors and Chrysler filed for bankruptcy. Musk recounts Tesla's close brush with the financial crisis, detailing how they closed a financing round on Christmas Eve, without which they would have failed to meet payroll just two days after Christmas. The memory serves as a poignant reminder for Musk, who emphasizes, "I don't want to be going at top speed into uncertainty."
Despite the looming economic concerns, Tesla has growth opportunities. Giga Texas still has ample space to expand production, pointing out that they are "only occupying a tiny corner of the land that we have." However, Musk noted that one of their major challenges is personnel, as the greater Austin area has a limited population, which is further constrained by a housing crisis.
The Importance of Car Price
Musk touched upon price elasticity, comparing Tesla vehicles to other cars like the RAV4. He emphasized the importance of making Tesla vehicles more affordable for the majority, iterating, "Cost is not an optional thing for most people; it is a necessary thing." He further explained that due to rising interest rates, even though Tesla has reduced the prices of vehicles like the Model Y, the monthly payment for customers remains almost the same due to the increased interest component.
The Wider Banking and Credit Situation
Musk also dived into a more significant credit situation. He pointed out that acquiring credit has become a challenge for many. Many banks have become more cautious, and some, like Credit Suisse, have even collapsed, which was an unexpected shock for many. He added, "People are reading about wars all over the world. Buying a new car tends not to be front of mind.
Elon Musk's concerns mirror the more considerable anxieties surrounding the global economy. The call served as a reminder that even industry giants like Tesla are not immune to global economic shifts and uncertainties.
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Well-known Tesla hacker Greentheonly has discovered a new FSD computer labeled Model Y “Reloaded.” This AI4 FSD computer differs from other Model Y Autopilot hardware which is usually just labeled “Model Y.”
Initially, it looks like this new computer may be for the just-announced refreshed Model Y Juniper, which is now open for orders in North America and Europe as well as Asia Pacific, but several features reveal it’s not for Tesla’s upcoming best-seller.
So, with that said, put on your detective hats, we’re going for a little sleuth into what exactly this “Reloaded” computer could be used for.
Model Y Reloaded Computer
The AI4 computer is the brain behind Tesla’s FSD. It is the Autopilot computer, where all the vehicle’s cameras connect, enabling real-time data processing and analysis.
This particular unit is not the standard FSD unit that’s being shipped with the current, now “first-gen” Model Y. The biggest sign that it differs from the current AI4 computer is that it features a connector for the front bumper camera. While the 2024 Model 3 was expected to come with a front bumper camera, it was only ever available on the Cybertruck and will soon be available on the new 2025 Model Y.
This is similar to the physical connector for the front bumper camera present in newer iterations of the Model S and Model X computers. These vehicles were originally slated to get a bumper camera last year, but that hasn’t happened yet. We reported back in 2022 that they received the additional camera hook-ups but no camera.
Tesla recently issued a recall for the AI4 computer, citing physical and software issues that could cause a potential short on the board. According to Green, this board is not the recalled unit but could instead be a replacement unit. However, why the board includes a front bumper camera connection remains a mystery.
Not a Juniper FSD Computer
We know that this isn’t the correct part for the refreshed Model Y Juniper because it lacks a connector for the secondary rear screen in the upcoming model.
Additionally, Tesla has labeled this computer unit as “MY Reloaded” - previous versions of the computer for the Model Y were listed as just “MY.” In addition, all the other computer versions have been pulled from Tesla’s Electronic Parts Catalogue - only this one is now available as Part #2003160-S0-E.
The label with
@greentheonly on X
Speculation
This new FSD hardware doesn’t appear to match the current or new Model Y, so what could it be? Well, there are a few things here. Tesla wouldn’t bother populating that front bumper camera slot for no reason - and this computer is a slightly different form factor than the one that goes in the Model S and Model X - so they’re not just sharing parts between the Model S and Model Y.
The most likely scenario is that Tesla is planning to replace any faulty AI4 computers with this updated part. But could Tesla be open to offering a retrofit for the front bumper camera? It’s important to note that this is not the hardware upgrade that many HW3 owners are waiting for. It is a different form factor than the HW3 computer and wouldn’t fit in HW3 vehicles. If anything, this is a potential replacement for the AI4 computer to support forward compatibility if FSD ever requires a bumper camera.
The full computer.
@greentheonly on X
Bumper Camera Retrofit?
Is Tesla planning to offer a front bumper camera retrofit? Maybe. Tesla doesn’t typically offer retrofits. They did for several items in the past, but they have largely stopped doing so.
Tesla included a front bumper camera on the refreshed Model Y Juniper, as well as on the Cybertruck - and it could be extremely useful for both Actually Smart Summon and FSD to remove the frontal blind spot.
However, it could be an optional feature rather than a retrofit feature. Until FSD Unsupervised arrives, we won’t know for sure whether a bumper camera is required.
For now, it would be best to keep an eye on this. Just like the Model S and Model X having the slot populated, it may not necessarily happen, but it leaves the door open for a future upgrade if necessary.
Tesla has announced steep price increases for its vehicles in Canada, with adjustments of up to CA$9,000 set to take effect on February 1, 2025. This move impacts nearly all models, with the Model 3 Performance trim seeing the steepest hike, rising from $70,990 to $79,990 Canadian. The Model Y, Model S, and Model X will each see a flat increase of CA$4,000 across all trims. Notably, the Cybertruck remains unaffected by these changes.
These price hikes coincide with the expiration of Canada’s federal EV incentive program, which previously offered CA$5,000 rebates on eligible vehicles, further increasing the price of Tesla vehicles.
Additionally, the Canadian dollar’s recent decline against the US dollar and looming trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada may have influenced Tesla’s decision. President Trump proposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, and Tesla may be expecting Canada to retaliate with a similar tariff on US goods. However, it’s interesting that Tesla has chosen to raise prices so drastically before any tariffs have been announced.
Price Increases
Model
Price Increase
Model 3 Long Range RWD
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Model 3 Long Range AWD
CA $8,000 ($5,600 USD)
Model 3 Performance
CA $9,000 ($6,300 USD)
Model Y
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Model S
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Model X
CA $4,000 ($2,800 USD)
Cybertruck
$0
Buyers
This could be a critical time to act for prospective buyers, with the price increase going into effect in just about a week. Tesla’s online configurator allows customers to lock in current prices by placing an order before February 1st. The company’s referral program also offers CA$1,300 off Model Y, Model S, and Model X purchases, providing additional savings before the price hike takes effect.
It’s not clear how much these adjustments will impact Tesla sales in Canada. If the increases are related to an upcoming tariff, then they’ll impact other manufacturers as well. We may see a potential surge in orders ahead of the February 1 deadline, especially for the AWD and Performance variants of the new Model 3, which will see the largest increase.
The price increase is expected to impact the new Model Y as well, which was announced last night for North America and Europe. Deliveries for the new model begin in March.
If you’re on the fence about whether you should order a new Tesla, now may be a good time to place your order. Tesla offers the ability to cancel your order, but buyers would lose their deposit.
