Tesla's Supercharger Network Steers Towards $100 Billion Valuation

Tesla's Supercharging network could become a central pillar to Tesla's profits

Tesla

In a striking turn of events, Tesla's Supercharger network — the globe's sole fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles — has been appraised by industry analysts to exceed $100 billion potentially. This evaluation, by one of the top Tesla experts, sends ripples across the EV charging business, marking a critical point for Tesla and the wider industry.

North American Standard NACS Connector Boosts Tesla’s Lead

Initially, Tesla's Supercharger network was meant as a perk for Tesla car owners, not a profit center. However, a fully developed EV charging market didn't materialize as expected, particularly in North America. Thus, automakers like GM and Ford have jumped on board, adopting Tesla’s NACS connector to provide their EV buyers access to Tesla’s Supercharger network. This is set to consolidate Tesla's position in the EV charging business, particularly in North America.

Morgan Stanley Forecasts and Scenarios for Supercharger Network

Adam Jonas, a highly regarded Tesla analyst at Morgan Stanley who also recently downplayed the Cybertruck, has extrapolated the potential value of the Supercharger business to Tesla. Jonas's team envisages a future where Tesla produces and stores its solar electricity to power Superchargers. By crunching the numbers, including assumed percentages of US electric vehicle miles in 2030, Supercharger market share, miles per kWh efficiency, and kWh revenue, several future scenarios emerged.

Understanding the Role of NOPAT in Tesla's Valuation

An important element in these scenarios is the Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) concept. NOPAT is a company's potential profit after taking out the costs of goods sold and operating expenses before deducting interest and taxes. It's used to gauge operating efficiency and profitability without considering the effects of the company's capital structure or debt.

To break it down, Jonas presents four unique cases:

• The "reasonable case" estimates a 10% penetration of EV miles, Tesla's Supercharging capturing 50% of the market, and a 30% NOPAT margin. This scenario pegs the net present value at $3 per share.
• The "plausible case" forecasts 20% penetration, Tesla capturing 70% of Supercharging, and a 50% NOPAT margin, resulting in a net present value of $14 per share.
• The "dominant case" anticipates a 30% EV miles penetration, an 80% Tesla Supercharging share, and a 70% NOPAT margin, culminating in a net present value of $33 per share.
• Lastly, the "monopoly case" foresees 50% EV miles penetration, Tesla seizing 100% of Supercharging, and an 80% NOPAT margin, leading to an astounding net present value of $78 per share.

Given Tesla's massive number of shares, surpassing 3 billion, the Supercharger network's valuation crosses $100 billion at a per-share price of $33.

This hefty valuation of Tesla's Supercharger network underscores the substantial profit potential waiting to be unlocked in the EV charging infrastructure. It also signifies the unyielding lead Tesla has carved out in the EV market, not just with their electric vehicles but also their charging network. As more automakers pivot towards Tesla's charging standard, this $100 billion valuation may indicate more seismic shifts in the EV industry.

Tesla Is Now Offering Cybertruck Test Drives [List of Locations]

@brandonhd

Tesla has begun to reach out to customers in the United States and is offering demo drives of the Cybertruck on an invite-only basis. @brandonhd on X shared the first invite image, and it looks like it's going out quite quickly to multiple locations that have Cybertrucks on display.

Up until now, display vehicles have been for just that – looking, but no touching. Some Tesla delivery centers and showrooms have also allowed viewers to take a seat inside and open it up, but most are still locked away behind the velvet rope.

It’s exciting to see that Tesla has begun to demo them – and it can only be so long until demo drives open up to everyone.

Advisor-led Demo

This Demo Drive is led by a Tesla Advisor – while you’re driving, the advisor will be in the passenger seat, walking you through the experience. They’ll explain steer-by-wire, off-road controls, and will introduce new-to-Tesla buyers to all the features that are currently available.

Once FSD V12.5 comes to the Cybertruck, we’re sure they’ll be demoing its capabilities FSD capabilities as well.

Locations

The list of locations so far for demo drives appears to be fairly limited, but we will hopefully see demo drives roll out throughout the United States, and eventually Canada too. Here is the current list of city/state locations that have seen demo drive invites.

• Manhasset, New York

• West Covina, California

• Los Angeles, California

• Houston, Texas

• Orlando, Florida

• Westmont, Illinois

• Tucson, Arizona

• Phoenix, Arizona

• Delaware

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Musk Confirms 'Actually Smart Summon' is Coming in a Revision of FSD V12.5

Not a Tesla App

Actually Smart Summon, the successor to Tesla’s Smart Summon feature, has been confirmed to be coming as soon as next month as per Elon Musk. Colloquially known as “ASS”, Actually Smart Summon is supposed to improve on the regular Smart Summon capabilities, which have historically used ultrasonic sensors (USS) to navigate parking lots.

We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon, and we’re quite excited about what other features will be unlocked once it finally shows up at our doorstep.

Vision-based Improvements

ASS is supposed to bring Smart Summon to vehicles that don’t have USS – using Tesla Vision. Most recently, Tesla has brought Autopark to vehicles without USS, and Vision-based Autopark has been a huge success. It is faster, more reliable, and smoother than the older USS-based solution. It can also park and maneuver in tighter locations.

Just recently, Tesla returned the Model X’s self-presenting doors, using Tesla Vision. Vision has seen some fantastic improvements, and many people are waiting for ASS to bring forth these improvements to Smart Summon.

Smart Summon Today

Today, Smart Summon is sometimes useful at best, usually a party trick, or downright dangerous at worst. It’s excellent and best used in straight lines, where you have a clear line of sight of the vehicle, and can stop it if doesn’t see an obstacle.

I used Smart Summon today, just before writing this article – my 2022 Model Y (with USS) – did manage to show up just fine – in a straight-line location from where I was parked, after exiting the parking spot fairly cleanly. However, I’ve previously used Smart Summon and have had the vehicle turn towards obstacles, such as cart returns or curbs. Overall, it’s a sometimes-useful feature that has a lot of drawbacks right now.

Smart Summon is also restricted to a certain distance – and it's pretty small. The max distance is shorter than most parking lots, being only about 215 ft (65m). If you’re lucky enough to park close, it's very useful to bring your car right to you.

Actually Smart Summon

ASS will bring FSD V12-like capabilities to Smart Summon – the vehicle will primarily use Vision to drive toward you (or the location you’ve indicated). ASS has been supposed to be coming since about September 2022 and has seen many delays – we’re almost at the 2-year point today.

We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon being able to bring the vehicle – safely – right to you. ASS is also one of the key steps towards bringing some other cool features that Elon Musk has previously mentioned – Park Seek and Banish Autopark.

We’re also hopeful that Actually Smart Summon will increase the maximum range a vehicle can be summoned, because the current range is fairly small. Alongside Park Seek and Banish Autopark, we’re closing in on a Robotaxi-based future.

Park Seek and Banish Autopark

When the FSD v12.4 showed up, Elon also mentioned that going forward, vehicles would automatically park themselves when arriving in a parking lot – Park Seek – and that if you got out of the car at the entrance to a business, you could get it to automatically park itself in the parking lot – Banish Autopark. These are two features that are needed for Robotaxi to work – which itself is delayed to October 10^th of this year. We’re looking quite forward to them – as in combination with Actually Smart Summon, Tesla has reached the cusp of vehicle autonomy.

A vehicle that arrives, driverless, at the location you’re at, then drives somewhere, parks itself there, and waits for you – is the definition of a Robotaxi.

While we’re likely to have to wait for Banish Autopark and Park Seek just a bit longer, Actually Smart Summon being around the corner is exciting! Gone will be the days of having to run out to your car when you forgot your umbrella – your car will just come right to you instead.

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