Will the Cybertruck's appeal dwindle after release?
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Cybertruck hype reached feverish levels after Investor Day. The futuristic vehicle was on display and even took some lucky people for a test drive. However, wherever there is a parade, there will surely be rain. So, Morgan Stanley's managing director advises staff to manage expectations for clients excited about investing in Tesla.
Adam Jonas, who attended Investor Day, listed five reasons why Cybertruck may not be the vehicle Elon Musk and the Tesla team dream it will be. Instead, he thinks it will be a financial "side-show," a "cultural/zeitgeist," and an "enthusiast/cult car." Let's hear him out. He is considered a Tesla Bull, despite a quick Google search showing he's been writing a bear case for Tesla for years.
Things Have Changed for Tesla
His first point is that Tesla was a different company in 2019 when Cybertruck was unveiled. When you adjust for the multiple stock splits, Tesla is worth ten times more today. He believes the company's values and goals have changed since 2019.
Tesla has changed significantly in the past four years, and the company is focused on launching a more affordable vehicle. Musk laid out his plan for a more sustainable energy future that included getting more people into electric cars, a goal that can only be achieved if those cars are affordable for more people. Unfortunately, Cybertruck is unlikely to be under the title: affordable.
How Far Can Unique Go?
The investor's next point is calling the Cybertruck the "ultimate avant-garde vehicle." He believes that the unique aspects of Cybertruck will lose some appeal when there are several on the road.
Okay, fair point. However, how many white Teslas do you see on the road today? No one seems to mind driving the same color Model 3 and Model Y. Besides, if someone is concerned about losing that "indescribable something," as Jonas puts it, they can get a wrap. Also, with rumors that the next platform may use Cybertruck's stainless steel exterior, the company doesn't seem concerned about too many stainless steel vehicles.
Restrict Cybertruck Production
To that point, the Morgan Stanley employee wonders if Tesla should restrict the production of Cybertruck. He forecasts that the production volume could ramp up to 100,000 units per year, which means it will be 2030 by the time 500,000 are on the street. He ponders if the company should limit production to 420,699 Cybertrucks.
This makes sense if his production figures are close to reality. It could take decades to fill the millions of Cybertruck orders. Look at how much things have changed in the four years since it was announced; imagine the changes that could happen before filling all those orders. These orders may fall under the same category as the long-awaited Roadster 2.0.
Price Point Concerns
In his next point, Jonas says the employee who gave him a Cybertruck ride said the vehicle weighed 7,000 pounds, equivalent to a Chevy Silverado 3500HD. That has Jonas thinking the price will be significantly higher than the first announced $39,900.
At this point, anyone who thinks they will get a Cybertruck for forty grand better forfeit their reservation now. But Jonas's point is relevant: if the price comes in too high, the waitlist will be drastically reduced by the many who put in a reservation for a $39,900 truck.
Not a Competitor for Traditional Trucks
Based on that point, Jonas doesn't think the Cybertruck he saw and rode in "poses a significant threat to the established pickup truck market."
He could be right. It will be a difficult sell if it's big, heavy, and considerably expensive. We should also note that just days before this letter to Morgan Stanley staff, Jonas dropped Tesla as his preferred U.S.-listed automaker and now backs Ferrari NV. Yes, that Ferrari, the builder of supercars.
If you are on the waiting list for a Cybertruck, it's worth considering the points Jonas has raised. However, while Cybertruck has generated significant hype and excitement, it is essential to account for the potential challenges and limitations it may face in the market. With Tesla's changing values and goals, the Cybertruck's unique design, uncertain price point, and limited production, it remains to be seen whether it will be the ultimate game-changer in the pickup truck market. But you'll have plenty of time to decide if you want to take delivery of your Cybertruck as limited production starts this summer, with a ramp-up beginning next year.
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For Tesla owners with vehicles equipped with Hardware 3 (HW3)—once hailed as the key to unlocking autonomy, Robotaxi functionality, and unsupervised Full Self-Driving—the landscape is quickly changing. FSD updates were previously available for HW3 and HW4, but now, HW3 is often excluded from newer FSD updates due to compute and memory constraints. While HW3 vehicles still run a capable version of FSD, they are considerably less smooth than HW4 vehicles.
This has many HW3 owners curious about Tesla’s plans to upgrade these older vehicles, which were once promised to be capable of true autonomy. Let’s take a look at everything Tesla has said and what we should expect.
The HW3 Predicament
Introduced around April 2019, HW3 was a big leap over HW 2.5 and HW 2, with Tesla billing it as the computer that would eventually deliver true self-driving. For a long time, it powered the FSD Beta program. However, as FSD Supervised becomes more complex and data-intensive, particularly with neural networks moving towards an end-to-end AI approach, questions about HW3’s long-term lifespan have grown.
While HW3 vehicles are still receiving FSD updates, with the latest version, V12.6, launching in January 2025, the latest improvements in FSD v13 appear to be stretching even the more modern capabilities of AI4 hardware. This has understandably led to concerns that HW3 will not support Robotaxis and true autonomy.
Tesla’s HW3 Upgrade Promise
To address these concerns, Elon Musk has made increasingly definitive statements. After initially suggesting an upgrade would happen "if needed," he confirmed at the Q4 2025 Earnings Call that Tesla will upgrade HW3 computers for customers who purchased the FSD package.
Musk stated, “That's going to be painful and difficult, but we'll get it done. Now I'm kinda glad that not that many people bought the FSD package, haha.”
While Musk initially stated that Tesla would offer a hardware upgrade if needed, he gave more details this time, stating that the complimentary upgrade would be available for those who purchased the FSD package. Subscribers and non-subscribers will likely need to pay a fee similar to the HW 2 / HW 2.5 upgrade. Interestingly, Tesla was later sued for charging a fee to upgrade to HW3 and had to waive the cost.
When Will the HW3 Upgrade Be Available?
Despite Musk’s confirmation of an upgrade, Tesla hasn’t provided any timelines or estimates for HW3 retrofits. The prevailing logic, and one that aligns with Tesla’s approach to engineering challenges, is that the company is unlikely to initiate a mass upgrade program until FSD is significantly closer to being “solved,” meaning it has achieved true, unsupervised autonomy where a driver is not needed.
Until Tesla knows the final, stable computing power and architectural requirements needed for that level of autonomy, rolling out an interim upgrade wouldn’t make sense. It would risk needing yet another upgrade down the line. Therefore, HW3 owners are in a waiting game - will they wait it out, or will they take one of Tesla’s FSD transfer deals?
What to Expect With the HW3 Upgrade
One thing is clear. The upgrade will not be a simple swap to the current generation of HW4 hardware. AI4, as found in newer Tesla vehicles, has different physical dimensions, power and cooling requirements, and connector configurations that make it incompatible as a direct retrofit into HW3-designed vehicles. It’d require a lot of effort and cost to adapt HW4 for HW3 vehicles.
This means Tesla will have to develop another custom-designed retrofit FSD computer specifically for HW3 replacements. This computer must fit within an existing and defined physical space and operate within the power and cooling budget of older vehicles.
Speculation naturally turns to Tesla’s next-generation FSD hardware, HW5 or AI5. Elon previously indicated that AI5 would appear in new vehicles near the end of 2025, initially citing a timeframe of 12-18 months back in mid-2023. However, it now looks like it’ll ship sometime in the first half of 2026.
Potentially, a variant of this new AI5 computer, perhaps a more power-efficient or underclocked version, could be engineered to form the basis of the HW3 retrofit solution. This is plausible, as newer chip architectures often bring considerably greater efficiency, potentially allowing a more powerful new design to operate within HW3’s constraints.
What About HW4 and HW5?
The current-generation FSD computer, HW4, is already facing some constraints with the latest FSD v13 updates. This means buyers and owners of AI4 vehicles are also starting to have this question creep into the back of their heads… “What about my vehicle?”
Based on Tesla’s official statements on AI5, it is poised to be a powerhouse of an upgrade. That means up to 10 times the processing capability of AI4. This is an immense increase in processing power, and over time, Tesla will likely use every bit of it to make FSD handle as many edge cases as possible. While AI4’s computing power was a modest increase from HW3, the leap from AI4 to AI5 is expected to be significantly larger.
Tesla’s executive team has stated that the existing cameras on HW3-equipped vehicles are “capable” and that the upgrade will be focused on the FSD computer. While the AI4 cameras offer a much higher resolution than HW3, Tesla says they’re not needed. This appears to contradict what Tesla is doing as of FSD v13.2. In that update, Tesla introduced processing FSD camera feeds at full resolution, suggesting that there is some advantage to the higher-resolution cameras.
Musk also stated that cameras would not be upgraded in HW3 vehicles.
As we’ve previously covered, the newer HW4 cameras offer several advantages over the HW3 camera generation, which include:
Higher Resolution: The AI4 cameras feature 5 megapixels, compared to the 1.2 megapixels on HW3 cameras, which allows the vehicle to see things further away and in sharper detail.
Improved Dynamic Range and Low-Light Performance: The improved dynamic range allows the system to see more clearly in low-light conditions, such as during sunrise or sunset, or at night.
Wider Field of View: The rear camera on AI4 features a significantly larger field of view, providing greater awareness of the vehicle's surroundings.
It's known that AI4 processes camera data at these higher resolutions, which undoubtedly contributes to its increased performance in decision-making, object recognition (especially at a distance or for small details, such as text on signs), and overall FSD smoothness.
Therefore, while a new, more powerful retrofit computer for HW3 vehicles will bring substantial improvements, it will still be processing input from the older-generation cameras. Another technical challenge that Tesla will need to address is how to maximize FSD performance using the existing HW3 cameras.
Infotainment (MCU) Upgrade?
Most HW3-era vehicles are equipped with the older Intel Atom-based infotainment computer, known as MCU 2. Newer Teslas, as well as newer HW3 vehicles, use the considerably faster AMD Ryzen-based MCU 3. Given that Tesla sometimes packages the FSD computer and infotainment computer together, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see an MCU upgrade as part of an FSD computer retrofit.
While this would be a welcome improvement, providing a snappier user interface and better media capabilities, Tesla has not confirmed any such plans. The FSD computer and the MCU are technically separate systems, but Tesla usually bundles them together to save on costs. While Tesla has offered paid MCU upgrades in the past (e.g., from the older MCU 1 to MCU 2), there is currently no official upgrade path from MCU 2 to MCU 3.
It’s best to assume that the promised free FSD computer upgrade will not automatically include an infotainment system upgrade as well, but it’s certainly possible, given that Tesla usually bundles these together.
Playing the Waiting Game
For Tesla owners who purchased FSD with their HW3 vehicles, the commitment for a free hardware upgrade is on the record. However, the "when" and "what" remain tied to the challenge of achieving true, unsupervised autonomy. Once Tesla understands the compute power required to solve FSD, we’ll likely hear more about this hardware upgrade. Until then, we’ll have to hold on tight with FSD v12.6.
In just 8 months, Tesla has gone from breaking ground to delivering electrons at its most ambitious Supercharger project to date, just in time to be ready for the busy Fourth of July holiday weekend. Project Oasis, the world’s largest Supercharger site, is now partially open to customers for its first phase in Lost Hills, California.
What makes this remarkable is the speed of execution. In just eight months, Tesla has constructed a site that will eventually feature 168 stalls (84 stalls are now open), supported by 11 MW of solar power and 10 Megapacks of battery storage. That construction speed is pretty impressive, but what is even more impressive is how this new station operates and what it means for future Supercharging infrastructure.
Self-Sufficient Energy Oasis
Not a Tesla App
The first 84 stalls at Lost Hills are now open, and according to the Tesla Charging team, they are currently powered solely by the sun and operate off-grid.
This makes it more than just a new Supercharger site. It serves as a proof of concept for a new type of Supercharger. Unlike nearly every other charging site in the world, which draws power from local utilities, this station generates its own clean electricity from its massive solar array and stores it in its array of on-site Megapacks.
Self-sufficient charging stations are something completely different than what we see today. They are highly resilient since they’re not reliant on the grid. That means that even if there is a local power outage, brownout, or blackout, one can always come to Lost Hills to Supercharge.
If you’ve got a Cybertruck, you could take advantage of the Cybertruck’s Powershare feature and charge up at Lost Hills to help keep your home powered during a blackout, utilizing the Cybertruck as a portable battery charger. Now that’s true independence and self-reliance.
The Future of Charging
Solar-powered Superchargers help avoid massive new loads on already stressed electrical grids, especially during peak afternoon and evening hours, when demand is the highest.
This is Tesla’s vision for the future of charging: a clean, fully closed-loop ecosystem that sustains itself. The sun’s energy is captured, stored, and delivered directly to vehicles on site at any time of day without relying on the electrical grid or fossil fuels.
Largest Supercharger in the World
This opening of 84 stalls is just the first phase of the project. Tesla says that the remaining stalls, as well as a new on-site lounge, are coming later this year. Once complete, the 168-stall site will be the largest Supercharger site in the world.
While the speed of building such a massive project in just eight months is a testament to Tesla’s execution, the true innovation is actually that self-sustainability. Let’s hope we see even more large, self-sufficient Supercharger sites across the world in the near future.
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