Jonas Tells Us Why Cybertruck May Not Be Runaway Success

Will the Cybertruck's appeal dwindle after release?

MatthewDR/Twitter

Cybertruck hype reached feverish levels after Investor Day. The futuristic vehicle was on display and even took some lucky people for a test drive. However, wherever there is a parade, there will surely be rain. So, Morgan Stanley's managing director advises staff to manage expectations for clients excited about investing in Tesla.

Adam Jonas, who attended Investor Day, listed five reasons why Cybertruck may not be the vehicle Elon Musk and the Tesla team dream it will be. Instead, he thinks it will be a financial "side-show," a "cultural/zeitgeist," and an "enthusiast/cult car." Let's hear him out. He is considered a Tesla Bull, despite a quick Google search showing he's been writing a bear case for Tesla for years.

Things Have Changed for Tesla

His first point is that Tesla was a different company in 2019 when Cybertruck was unveiled. When you adjust for the multiple stock splits, Tesla is worth ten times more today. He believes the company's values and goals have changed since 2019.

Tesla has changed significantly in the past four years, and the company is focused on launching a more affordable vehicle. Musk laid out his plan for a more sustainable energy future that included getting more people into electric cars, a goal that can only be achieved if those cars are affordable for more people. Unfortunately, Cybertruck is unlikely to be under the title: affordable.

How Far Can Unique Go?

The investor's next point is calling the Cybertruck the "ultimate avant-garde vehicle." He believes that the unique aspects of Cybertruck will lose some appeal when there are several on the road.

Okay, fair point. However, how many white Teslas do you see on the road today? No one seems to mind driving the same color Model 3 and Model Y. Besides, if someone is concerned about losing that "indescribable something," as Jonas puts it, they can get a wrap. Also, with rumors that the next platform may use Cybertruck's stainless steel exterior, the company doesn't seem concerned about too many stainless steel vehicles.

Restrict Cybertruck Production

To that point, the Morgan Stanley employee wonders if Tesla should restrict the production of Cybertruck. He forecasts that the production volume could ramp up to 100,000 units per year, which means it will be 2030 by the time 500,000 are on the street. He ponders if the company should limit production to 420,699 Cybertrucks.

This makes sense if his production figures are close to reality. It could take decades to fill the millions of Cybertruck orders. Look at how much things have changed in the four years since it was announced; imagine the changes that could happen before filling all those orders. These orders may fall under the same category as the long-awaited Roadster 2.0.

Price Point Concerns

In his next point, Jonas says the employee who gave him a Cybertruck ride said the vehicle weighed 7,000 pounds, equivalent to a Chevy Silverado 3500HD. That has Jonas thinking the price will be significantly higher than the first announced $39,900.

At this point, anyone who thinks they will get a Cybertruck for forty grand better forfeit their reservation now. But Jonas's point is relevant: if the price comes in too high, the waitlist will be drastically reduced by the many who put in a reservation for a $39,900 truck.

Not a Competitor for Traditional Trucks

Based on that point, Jonas doesn't think the Cybertruck he saw and rode in "poses a significant threat to the established pickup truck market."

He could be right. It will be a difficult sell if it's big, heavy, and considerably expensive. We should also note that just days before this letter to Morgan Stanley staff, Jonas dropped Tesla as his preferred U.S.-listed automaker and now backs Ferrari NV. Yes, that Ferrari, the builder of supercars.

If you are on the waiting list for a Cybertruck, it's worth considering the points Jonas has raised. However, while Cybertruck has generated significant hype and excitement, it is essential to account for the potential challenges and limitations it may face in the market. With Tesla's changing values and goals, the Cybertruck's unique design, uncertain price point, and limited production, it remains to be seen whether it will be the ultimate game-changer in the pickup truck market. But you'll have plenty of time to decide if you want to take delivery of your Cybertruck as limited production starts this summer, with a ramp-up beginning next year.

Tesla Is Now Offering Cybertruck Test Drives [List of Locations]

@brandonhd

Tesla has begun to reach out to customers in the United States and is offering demo drives of the Cybertruck on an invite-only basis. @brandonhd on X shared the first invite image, and it looks like it's going out quite quickly to multiple locations that have Cybertrucks on display.

Up until now, display vehicles have been for just that – looking, but no touching. Some Tesla delivery centers and showrooms have also allowed viewers to take a seat inside and open it up, but most are still locked away behind the velvet rope.

It’s exciting to see that Tesla has begun to demo them – and it can only be so long until demo drives open up to everyone.

Advisor-led Demo

This Demo Drive is led by a Tesla Advisor – while you’re driving, the advisor will be in the passenger seat, walking you through the experience. They’ll explain steer-by-wire, off-road controls, and will introduce new-to-Tesla buyers to all the features that are currently available.

Once FSD V12.5 comes to the Cybertruck, we’re sure they’ll be demoing its capabilities FSD capabilities as well.

Locations

The list of locations so far for demo drives appears to be fairly limited, but we will hopefully see demo drives roll out throughout the United States, and eventually Canada too. Here is the current list of city/state locations that have seen demo drive invites.

• Manhasset, New York

• West Covina, California

• Los Angeles, California

• Houston, Texas

• Orlando, Florida

• Westmont, Illinois

• Tucson, Arizona

• Phoenix, Arizona

• Delaware

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Musk Confirms 'Actually Smart Summon' is Coming in a Revision of FSD V12.5

Not a Tesla App

Actually Smart Summon, the successor to Tesla’s Smart Summon feature, has been confirmed to be coming as soon as next month as per Elon Musk. Colloquially known as “ASS”, Actually Smart Summon is supposed to improve on the regular Smart Summon capabilities, which have historically used ultrasonic sensors (USS) to navigate parking lots.

We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon, and we’re quite excited about what other features will be unlocked once it finally shows up at our doorstep.

Vision-based Improvements

ASS is supposed to bring Smart Summon to vehicles that don’t have USS – using Tesla Vision. Most recently, Tesla has brought Autopark to vehicles without USS, and Vision-based Autopark has been a huge success. It is faster, more reliable, and smoother than the older USS-based solution. It can also park and maneuver in tighter locations.

Just recently, Tesla returned the Model X’s self-presenting doors, using Tesla Vision. Vision has seen some fantastic improvements, and many people are waiting for ASS to bring forth these improvements to Smart Summon.

Smart Summon Today

Today, Smart Summon is sometimes useful at best, usually a party trick, or downright dangerous at worst. It’s excellent and best used in straight lines, where you have a clear line of sight of the vehicle, and can stop it if doesn’t see an obstacle.

I used Smart Summon today, just before writing this article – my 2022 Model Y (with USS) – did manage to show up just fine – in a straight-line location from where I was parked, after exiting the parking spot fairly cleanly. However, I’ve previously used Smart Summon and have had the vehicle turn towards obstacles, such as cart returns or curbs. Overall, it’s a sometimes-useful feature that has a lot of drawbacks right now.

Smart Summon is also restricted to a certain distance – and it's pretty small. The max distance is shorter than most parking lots, being only about 215 ft (65m). If you’re lucky enough to park close, it's very useful to bring your car right to you.

Actually Smart Summon

ASS will bring FSD V12-like capabilities to Smart Summon – the vehicle will primarily use Vision to drive toward you (or the location you’ve indicated). ASS has been supposed to be coming since about September 2022 and has seen many delays – we’re almost at the 2-year point today.

We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon being able to bring the vehicle – safely – right to you. ASS is also one of the key steps towards bringing some other cool features that Elon Musk has previously mentioned – Park Seek and Banish Autopark.

We’re also hopeful that Actually Smart Summon will increase the maximum range a vehicle can be summoned, because the current range is fairly small. Alongside Park Seek and Banish Autopark, we’re closing in on a Robotaxi-based future.

Park Seek and Banish Autopark

When the FSD v12.4 showed up, Elon also mentioned that going forward, vehicles would automatically park themselves when arriving in a parking lot – Park Seek – and that if you got out of the car at the entrance to a business, you could get it to automatically park itself in the parking lot – Banish Autopark. These are two features that are needed for Robotaxi to work – which itself is delayed to October 10^th of this year. We’re looking quite forward to them – as in combination with Actually Smart Summon, Tesla has reached the cusp of vehicle autonomy.

A vehicle that arrives, driverless, at the location you’re at, then drives somewhere, parks itself there, and waits for you – is the definition of a Robotaxi.

While we’re likely to have to wait for Banish Autopark and Park Seek just a bit longer, Actually Smart Summon being around the corner is exciting! Gone will be the days of having to run out to your car when you forgot your umbrella – your car will just come right to you instead.

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