Jonas Tells Us Why Cybertruck May Not Be Runaway Success

Will the Cybertruck's appeal dwindle after release?

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Cybertruck hype reached feverish levels after Investor Day. The futuristic vehicle was on display and even took some lucky people for a test drive. However, wherever there is a parade, there will surely be rain. So, Morgan Stanley's managing director advises staff to manage expectations for clients excited about investing in Tesla.

Adam Jonas, who attended Investor Day, listed five reasons why Cybertruck may not be the vehicle Elon Musk and the Tesla team dream it will be. Instead, he thinks it will be a financial "side-show," a "cultural/zeitgeist," and an "enthusiast/cult car." Let's hear him out. He is considered a Tesla Bull, despite a quick Google search showing he's been writing a bear case for Tesla for years.

Things Have Changed for Tesla

His first point is that Tesla was a different company in 2019 when Cybertruck was unveiled. When you adjust for the multiple stock splits, Tesla is worth ten times more today. He believes the company's values and goals have changed since 2019.

Tesla has changed significantly in the past four years, and the company is focused on launching a more affordable vehicle. Musk laid out his plan for a more sustainable energy future that included getting more people into electric cars, a goal that can only be achieved if those cars are affordable for more people. Unfortunately, Cybertruck is unlikely to be under the title: affordable.

How Far Can Unique Go?

The investor's next point is calling the Cybertruck the "ultimate avant-garde vehicle." He believes that the unique aspects of Cybertruck will lose some appeal when there are several on the road.

Okay, fair point. However, how many white Teslas do you see on the road today? No one seems to mind driving the same color Model 3 and Model Y. Besides, if someone is concerned about losing that "indescribable something," as Jonas puts it, they can get a wrap. Also, with rumors that the next platform may use Cybertruck's stainless steel exterior, the company doesn't seem concerned about too many stainless steel vehicles.

Restrict Cybertruck Production

To that point, the Morgan Stanley employee wonders if Tesla should restrict the production of Cybertruck. He forecasts that the production volume could ramp up to 100,000 units per year, which means it will be 2030 by the time 500,000 are on the street. He ponders if the company should limit production to 420,699 Cybertrucks.

This makes sense if his production figures are close to reality. It could take decades to fill the millions of Cybertruck orders. Look at how much things have changed in the four years since it was announced; imagine the changes that could happen before filling all those orders. These orders may fall under the same category as the long-awaited Roadster 2.0.

Price Point Concerns

In his next point, Jonas says the employee who gave him a Cybertruck ride said the vehicle weighed 7,000 pounds, equivalent to a Chevy Silverado 3500HD. That has Jonas thinking the price will be significantly higher than the first announced $39,900.

At this point, anyone who thinks they will get a Cybertruck for forty grand better forfeit their reservation now. But Jonas's point is relevant: if the price comes in too high, the waitlist will be drastically reduced by the many who put in a reservation for a $39,900 truck.

Not a Competitor for Traditional Trucks

Based on that point, Jonas doesn't think the Cybertruck he saw and rode in "poses a significant threat to the established pickup truck market."

He could be right. It will be a difficult sell if it's big, heavy, and considerably expensive. We should also note that just days before this letter to Morgan Stanley staff, Jonas dropped Tesla as his preferred U.S.-listed automaker and now backs Ferrari NV. Yes, that Ferrari, the builder of supercars.

If you are on the waiting list for a Cybertruck, it's worth considering the points Jonas has raised. However, while Cybertruck has generated significant hype and excitement, it is essential to account for the potential challenges and limitations it may face in the market. With Tesla's changing values and goals, the Cybertruck's unique design, uncertain price point, and limited production, it remains to be seen whether it will be the ultimate game-changer in the pickup truck market. But you'll have plenty of time to decide if you want to take delivery of your Cybertruck as limited production starts this summer, with a ramp-up beginning next year.

Tesla FSD in Europe: June Update

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The road to bringing FSD to Europe has been a long and complex one and filled with regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles. Elon Musk, as well as other members of Tesla’s AI team, have previously voiced their grievances with the regulatory approval process on X.

However, it appears that there is finally some progress in getting things moving with recent changes to upcoming autonomy regulations, but the process still seems slow.

Waiting on the Dutch

Elon commented on X recently, stating that Tesla is waiting for approval from Dutch authorities and then the EU to start rolling out FSD in Europe. Tesla is focusing on acquiring approvals from the Dutch transportation authority, which will provide them with the platform they need to gain broader acceptance in Europe. Outside of the Netherlands, Tesla is also conducting testing in Norway, which provides a couple of avenues for them to obtain national-level approval.

The frustration has been ongoing, with multiple committee meetings bringing up autonomy regulation but always pulling back at the last second before approving anything. The last meeting on Regulation 157, which governs Automated Lane Keeping Systems, concluded with authorities from the UK and Spain requesting additional time to analyze the data before reaching a conclusion.

Tesla, as well as Elon, have motioned several times for owners to reach out to their elected representatives to move the process forward, as it seems that Tesla’s own efforts are being stymied. 

This can seem odd, especially since Tesla has previously demoed FSD working exceptionally smoothly on European roads - and just did it again in Rome when they shared the video below on X.

FSD Supervised testing in Rome, Italy

Pending regulatory approval pic.twitter.com/TXh3uQIfrx

— Tesla Europe & Middle East (@teslaeurope) June 12, 2025

DCAS Phase 3

While the approval process has been slow, Kees Roelandschap pointed out that there may be a different regulatory step that could allow FSD to gain a foothold in Europe.

According to Kees, the European Commission is now taking a new approach to approving ADAS systems under the new DCAS Phase 3 regulations. The Commission is now seeking data from systems currently operational in the United States that can perform System-Initiated Maneuvers and don’t require hands-on intervention for every request.

This is key because those are two of the core functionalities that make FSD so usable, and it also means that there may not be a need to wait years for proper regulations to be written from scratch. Now, the Commission will be looking at real-world data based on existing, deployed technology, which could speed up the process immensely.

What This Means

This new, data-driven regulatory approach could be the path for Tesla to reach its previous target of September for European FSD. While the cogs of bureaucracy are ever slow, sometimes all it takes is a little data to have them turn a bit faster in this case.

Alongside specific countries granting approval for limited field testing with employees, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for FSD in Europe, and hopes are that a release will occur by the end of 2025. With Europe now looking to North America for how FSD is performing, Tesla’s Robotaxi results could also play a role.

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Tesla Launches 'TeslaVision' Contest With Big Prizes — See Last Year’s Winner [VIDEO]

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Tesla’s marketing has always been relatively unconventional, relying on word-of-mouth rather than traditional advertising. The passion of the owner’s community is always massive, but it is especially high now with the launch of the Robotaxi network just around the corner.

Tesla is now tapping into that spring of fan creativity and announced the TeslaVision video contest, with some seriously impressive prizes up for grabs.

Announcing the TeslaVision fan video showcase

Tesla owners & supporters have always been able to see our products & mission for what they truly are.

Your word of mouth has made Tesla what it is today.

The OGs will remember that in 2017, we held our first video contest. 8 years… pic.twitter.com/6pPpkqmqOH

— Tesla (@Tesla) June 10, 2025

The Contest

The core of the contest is simple. Create a video that shows how your Tesla gives you more in life. Tesla is looking for submissions that highlight themes of freedom, safety, fun, and convenience.

Prizes

The prizes definitely make this contest worth entering if you’re good with a camera and have some basic video editing abilities.

For North America, the prizes include a brand new Model Y AWD Long Range, alongside an all-expenses-paid trip to Austin for a tour of Giga Texas. The grand prize winner will also be able to custom order their Model Y, allowing them to select their preferred wheels and color.

The two runners-up won’t get a Model Y, but they’ll also enjoy an all-expenses-paid trip to Giga Texas for a tour of the factory.

The travel and tour include lodging in Austin for 2 nights, as well as economy-class round-trip tickets from anywhere in North America. Tesla will also provide a vehicle for use during the trip.

Hopefully, these winners will also have the opportunity to experience the Robotaxi network while they’re in Austin, as it’s expected to be opened to the public later this month.

Project Loveday

For long-time followers of Tesla, this contest may feel familiar. The contest is a direct throwback to the 2017 Project Loveday contest, which was inspired by a letter to Tesla from a 10-year-old aspiring marketer. That contest was won by MKBHD, with his submission below:

How to Enter

If you’re ready to start filming, here are the key pieces of information you’ll need to know:

• Video must be 90 seconds or less

• Video must be uploaded to YouTube with a public URL

• Make a post on X and Instagram tagging “@Tesla” and include the words “TeslaVision contest” in the post.

• Provide links to both social media posts in your submission to Tesla’s form

• Provide your personal details in the form

• You have until July 17th, 2025, or until Tesla receives 10,000 entries, whichever comes first.

You can find the official submission form and all region-specific details on Tesla's website.

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