Tesla is shipping the latest FSD Beta 10.69.3.1 to public testers now
Not a Tesla App
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program continues to expand with FSD Beta version 10.69.3.1, but the biggest one, version 11, is on track for release in December.
FSD Beta 10.69.3.1
Most beta testers have been stuck on beta 10.69.2.4 for quite a while, which was first released on October 20th. This build was based on update 2022.20, so it's missing several months of Tesla software enhancements, making owners even more eager to get the latest build that is based on 2022.36.
About one percent of public testers got access to 10.69.3.1 over the weekend and the trend continued today with about 10% of testers receiving access to the latest beta.
We believe the trend will continue with more users receiving this build tonight and tomorrow and we expect all current testers to be on FSD Beta 10.69.3.1 by Thursday this week. If you've been waiting for a new build, the wait shouldn't be long now, as long as no major issues are found.
While Elon Musk has been busy rebuilding his new company Twitter, he did use the platform to share a few updates about Tesla. On Friday, November 19, Musk tweeted: Tesla FSD 10.69.3.1 is going to wide release now.
Expanding to New Testers
While FSD Beta 10.69.3.1 has begun going out to some existing testers, it has also started to be sent to some owners completely new to the FSD program.
Tesla and Elon Musk have iterated that everyone in the US and Canada will receive FSD Beta by the end of the year. We expect Tesla to slowly add more users to FSD Beta until everyone is eventually included.
FSD Version 11 - Soon
On Sunday, Tesla’s CEO was asked for an update on FSD V11. Musk tweeted: Making good progress. Still tracking to wide release next month. This tweet caused a lot of confusion because, five days earlier Musk tweeted: We’ll widen V11 beta before Thanksgiving.
Many people were looking for clarification, including Twitter user @BLKMDL3, who asked: By “wide release next month” do you mean to those who currently have beta or to anyone who purchased FSD who won’t have to do safety score. Musk responded: Latter.
That response indicates that beta V11 could possibly start showing up this week for a select few, but Musk is staying with his timeline stated at the third quarter earnings call; FSD is going out to everyone by the end of the year, including the new V11.
Single Stack Version 11 is a Game Changer
V11 release notes indicate this update will be nothing short of incredible. As Tesla engineers pointed out on A.I. Day 2022, version 11 is a single stack, one code that provides all the information from parking lots to highways. The update: “unifies the vision and planning stack on and off-highway and replaces the legacy highway stack, which is over four years old,” states the notes.
Tesla said the legacy FSD highway program uses several single-camera and single-frame networks but could only navigate “simple lane-specific maneuvers.” That will change with the next update as the program uses: “multi-camera video networks and next-gen planner, that allows for more complex agent interactions with less reliance on lanes, make way for adding more intelligent behaviors, smoother control and better decision making.” The extensive list includes improvements for severe weather, navigating blocked lanes and debris, and better speed matching and gap selection.
For many who have been waiting for FSD for years, you may need patience for a few more weeks. But from all accounts, FSD will be well worth the wait.
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Tesla's fourth quarter and 2022 earnings call with investors was mostly good news unless you were planning to drive a Cybertruck soon. While company executives eagerly jumped on every question asked by investors, there was a noticeable pause when a point-blank question was asked about Cybertruck's mid-year production date.
Elon Musk responded "um, we do expect production to start, I don't know, maybe sometime this summer. But I always like to try to downplay the start of production because the start of production is always very slow. It increases exponentially, but it's always very slow at first. So I wouldn't put too much thought in start of production."
Volume Production Next Year
If the millions of people with Cybertruck reservations were in attendance, you might have felt the air leave the room. The previous belief was mass production would start by the end of 2023. There may be some stainless-steel beauties on the road by then, but only a few. "It's kind of when does volume production actually happen, and that's next year," said Musk.
Perhaps sensing some disappointed buyers, Lars Moravy, Tesla's Vice President of Vehicle Engineering added, "(I'd) like just to emphasize on that, we've started installation of all the production equipment here in Giga Texas, castings, general assembly, body shops. We built all our beta vehicles, some more coming still in the next month, but as you said, the ramp will really come 2024."
The Cybertruck Will be Elon's Next Car
Cybertruck was originally announced in 2019 at the memorable event that included the unbreakable armor glass smashing. Musk was wearing the smashed glass Cybertruck t-shirt while taking questions from investors. While the wait continues, he is adamant that it will be worth it, "So it's an incredible product. I can't wait to drive it personally. It will be the car that I drive every day… it's just one of those products that only comes along once in a while, and it's really special."
The original release deadline was set for 2021. However, the production date has been delayed due to unforeseen circumstances, like a global pandemic. Nevertheless, it is a positive sign that beta vehicles have been produced. Images of what appears to be a Cybertruck were leaked a few months ago.
Recently, chief designer Franz von Holzhausen did confirm that the Cybertruck was ready for production, but it's a work in progress. Every Tesla beta product gets thoroughly examined and meticulously reviewed before the next step. But at least it's a step in the right direction.
Tesla set new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations.
Statista
Tesla published their Q4 2022 and full-year financial results, setting new records in production and deliveries while beating analyst expectations. Tesla’s annual profit rose to $12.6 billion in 2022, from $5.5 billion in 2021. Annual revenue rose to $81.5 billion, from $53.8 billion the year prior. Tesla reported fourth-quarter revenue of $24.32 billion beating analysts' $24.07 billion estimate. The automaker also reported earnings per share of $1.19 beating analysts' $1.12 estimate.
Tesla’s stock rose more than 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release and surged more than 10% the next day.
Tesla's Q4 2022 revenue set a new record for the company, up 59% from a year earlier. In addition to automotive revenue of $21.3 billion, Tesla recognized $324 million of deferred revenue from the company’s driver assistance systems.
FSD Beta Numbers
Tesla reported that 90 million miles have now been driven with FSD Beta, up from 58 million miles in the previous quarter. The company also confirmed that they have about 400,000 FSD Beta users in North America, a sizeable increase since the last report. With such a steep increase in miles driven and FSD Beta becoming widely available in North America, Tesla is making significant progress with its autonomous driving software.
In late 2022 and into this year, Tesla began cutting prices on its cars globally. Elon spoke about how recent price cuts have fueled a surge in demand for Tesla: “Thus far in January we’ve seen the strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history. We’re currently seeing orders of almost twice the rate of production.” He added: “These price changes really make a difference for the average consumer.” Tesla acknowledges that average sales prices have to decrease over time because affordability is part of Tesla's mission to grow into a company that sells multiple millions of cars annually.
Price cuts will impact profitability, but margins should remain healthy, Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn affirmed. Tesla has wider operating margins than the industry average, which allows them to make such price cuts.
Elon issued an uncertain forecast for 2023, saying Tesla planned on 1.8 million vehicles for the year without specifying whether that was a target for production or deliveries. If the company were to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023, that would result in 37% annual growth.
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