Comparing Ford's Blue Cruise Driver Assist with Tesla's FSD

Sandy Munro gets a chance to go in a Ford Mach E with a representative of Ford, and he experiences Ford's Blue Cruise. The Ford guy just wants to talk about Blue Cruise, but Sandy can't seem to restrain himself from making comparisons with Tesla. This is probably not what the Ford guy wanted him to do.

First of all, it was clear that Ford's Blue Cruise is available only on limited access highways. And Blue Cruise isn't connected to the GPS navigation system at all. It won't steer you off at your appropriate off ramp. So the appropriate comparison is Blue Cruise vs Autopilot. Autopilot works on any road where there are painted lane markers, Blue Cruise works only on limited access highways. And Blue Cruise won't change lanes for you. You need to take control and do that manually. Ford is thinking about adding that feature in the future.

Ford advertises that Blue Cruise is a hands-free system. It uses a cabin-facing camera to make sure that the driver is paying attention. It will allow the driver to look away from the road briefly, but it will send the driver a reminder to pay attention after a few seconds of inattentive driving. Blue Cruise will stop working if the driver continues to be inattentive. The video doesn't make clear what, exactly, happens when Blue Cruise stops working due to the driver's sudden inability to pay attention.

There's another issue with hands-free driving. It's a reaction time issue. A long time ago in a previous millennium, when I took Driver Education, we saw a movie that I still remember. In the movie, a car was rigged so the front seat passenger, the instructor, could secretly push a button that would make a noise and shoot a chalk mark onto the road. The driver was told to immediately slam on the brake. At that point, the car shot another chalk mark onto the road. Then, a bit farther along, the car came to a stop.

It takes the brain about three quarters of a second to realize that an emergency exists and another three quarters of a second to move the foot off the accelerator and get it slammed down on the brake. At 65 miles an hour, the car will have traveled 96 feet down the road before a human being can initiate the stopping process. A few phantom braking events are a small price to pay for a quicker response to an emergency stop situation. So what does that have to do with hands-free Blue Cruise?

The brain still needs to see a situation that demands a sudden avoidance maneuver. Then it must decide which way to turn the steering wheel and how much to turn it. That delay will increase by the same one and a half seconds of effective inaction if the brain has to first figure out how to get the hands onto the steering wheel and then get them there before it can initiate a calculation about which way and how much to steer for the avoidance maneuver. That means you're 96 feet further down the road before you start the avoidance maneuver if your hands are off the steering wheel when an emergency becomes evident.

So I have to say that for level 2 autonomy, where the driver may need to take over quickly, it's better if the hands are already on the wheel.

There was another odd quirk about Blue Cruise. Sandy Munro was chatting with the Ford guy when he suddenly noticed a visual, but not audible, warning that he had to take control of steering. This was on a limited access highway going seventy miles an hour. It's a good thing he noticed it because Blue Cruise poops out when it sees a "sharp curve."

This particular curve was on a limited access highway. It wasn't sharp enough to require a reduction in the speed limit. I foresee that this will become an issue when drivers don't notice that Blue Cruise has quit working and the car drifts to the outside of the curve and out of its lane.

Autopilot stops working around sharp curves, too. But Autopilot gives an audible signal, your hands are already on the wheel, and Autopilot's definition of a sharp curve is one where you have to slow down to 20mph, not one that you can negotiate at highway speeds.

My advice? Don't ride in a car with Ford Blue Cruise.

Ford's Blue Cruise technology is way behind what Tesla offers today, not even considering the FSD Beta, which should become available to the public later this year. As Tesla advances further in vehicle autonomy, they'll be solving problems Ford has yet to come across. It's great to see that Tesla has started the electric revolution in cars, but Tesla's competition won't come with existing auto makers.

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Musk Teases New Model for Early 2025 That Will Use a Mix of Next-Gen and Current Platforms

“We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025”. This was one of the key sentences that were part of Tesla’s deck shared on Tuesday directly before its financial results.

Since Reuters’ report a few weeks ago saying Tesla had “scrapped” the highly expected cheaper model— which Elon quickly denied on X —retail and institutional shareholders started asking for more details on Tesla’s product roadmap for 2024 and beyond.

In the earnings conference call, Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla expects to launch the next model in “early 2025, if not late this year”.

“We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. “

Over concerns of temporary production halts to update the factories for these new models, Musk said that Tesla will produce new models with certain aspects from their next-generation platform and current models. This will reduce the number of changes needed on production lines and allow Tesla not only to ramp up production faster but also to get the vehicles to market quicker.

Model Y Redesign

Tesla appears to hit that their next-gen vehicle will be less “next-gen” than they were initially aiming for, but to get a new vehicle out the door by late 2024, the process would already have to be in motion. Tesla may likely be referring to the redesigned Model Y, which is expected to reuse many parts from the new Model 3. Earlier this year, Tesla said that the redesigned Model Y will not be released this year, so it makes sense that they’re looking to speed up that production.

Tesla CEO concluded by saying that these measures will allow Tesla to reach a capacity of over 3 million units. Tesla produced 1.84 million vehicles in 2023. However, this year they’re ramping up Cybertruck production and introduced the new Model 3 into new markets.

And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.

Tesla reported on Tuesday its earnings results followed by a conference call where it teased its upcoming Robotaxi and its next-generation platform saying its “purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary ‘unboxed’ manufacturing strategy”.

Earlier in the day, Tesla announced the new Performance variant of its sedan Model 3 with deliveries in the United States starting already next month. The new version starts at $45,490 (after applying the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit) and goes from 0 to 60mph in 2.9 seconds.

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Tesla on FSD: Close to License Deal With Major Automaker, Announces Miles Driven on FSD v12

On Tuesday Tesla reported its earnings results followed by a conference call that brought several updates on the company’s roadmap for future vehicles, autonomous driving, Optimus and much more.

While answering a question from Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney about updates on the licensing of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, Elon Musk said they’re talking to one major auto manufacturer and there’s “a good chance” the company signs the first deal before year-end. However, he went on to say that it would probably be three years before the necessary changes are integrated into the car.

I think we have a good chance we do sign a deal this year

Brings Benefits to Tesla

The technology would require other automakers to start using the same cameras and hardware as Tesla, meaning that Tesla may not only generate money from licensing FSD but also from selling the hardware itself. However, there would be other benefits as well. When licensing FSD, Tesla would likely own the data gathered with the system well, further helping them with data and edge cases that need to be solved to reach full autonomy.

people don't understand all cars will need to be smart cars… Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.

Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja commented pointing out that future partners “take a lot of time in their product life cycle” resulting in a gap between the deal signing and the arrival in the market of Tesla’s FSD software.

Miles Driven With FSD

On the conference call, Musk added that Tesla now has over 300 million miles that have been driven with FSD v12 since it was launched just last month. He added that it's becoming “very clear that the vision-based approach with end-to-end neural networks is the right solution for scalable autonomy”.

Tesla said it will continue to increase its “core AI infrastructure capacity in the coming months” adding that in the first quarter, it completed the transition to hardware 4.0 with China now receiving the upgraded FSD computer and cameras.

Over the weekend, Tesla reduced the price of FSD dropping it from $12,000 to $8,000 for customers in the United States and from CA$16,000 to CA$11,000 in Canada.

Earlier this month, Tesla implemented a 50% price reduction for FSD subscriptions in the U.S. and introduced the subscription model in Canada at a great value of CA$99 per month.

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