Tesla Suffers Sharp Decline in U.S. Sales: A Look at the Numbers

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Tesla’s US Sales were recently released in the Kelly Blue Book, which provides insight into vehicle sales in the domestic United States. It doesn’t cover Canada or any other international markets but provides a lot of data to analyze.

We’re going to look at Tesla’s sales here, analyze some trends, and make some observations.

Tesla Sales in the U.S.

We’re specifically looking at EV sales in the US - so let’s lay out how each of Tesla’s vehicles did. The table below shows the relative rank of the vehicle compared to all EVs available in the US market, the 2024 and 2023 sales figures, as well as the percentage change year over year.

Lower Sales

Overall, Tesla has seen a net shrink in the number of vehicles sold in the United States. This makes sense, especially as they reported similar findings in their 2024 Production and Delivery Numbers just recently. Surprisingly, the Model Y saw the lowest drop, even with the upcoming release of the refresh, while the Model 3 and Model X were hit pretty hard. 

The worst of the bunch is the Model S, at an astounding -31.2% year-over-year change - a difference of nearly 6,000 vehicles. While that doesn’t seem like much, that’s at minimum $450M in sales revenue ($75,000 starting price x 6,000). The Model 3, on the other hand, makes that seem like a drop in the hat, with its difference of nearly 40,000 vehicles - costing Tesla a potential revenue of $1,760,000,000 - $1.76B. That’s a lot of 0’s, assuming everyone bought a Long Range RWD variant.

Sales Up In Other Regions

Tesla sales were not only lower in the United States but also in Europe. Canada was flat when compared to 2023. China and other regions (RoW) were actually the only ones that were up year-over-year, helping bring Tesla almost flat in total sales for the year. In 2024 Tesla delivered 1.79 million vehicles globally, compared to 1.81 million in 2023.

Update: This article has been updated to accurately reflect that sales were also down in Europe and not just the U.S.

Cybertruck

Overall, these lower sales in the United States and Europe have had a fairly significant impact on the company - but on the flip side, sales of the Cybertruck are fantastic news for Tesla. The Cybertruck is the 5th best-selling EV in the U.S. In fact, it sold better than the R1T and the Ford F-150 Lightning - which is the most “normal” EV truck anyone could buy. It is also the best-selling vehicle at or above the $100,000 USD price mark - a feat that isn’t easily achieved, especially as people have been more reticent to spend in difficult economic times.

The Model S and Model X

Ok, we’ll say it upfront. The Model S and Model X sales are… disappointing. The Model X was out-sold by the Rivian R1S by 35% (26,934 vehicles vs 19,855) - which came as a surprise. 

While the R1S is a fantastic vehicle, the Model X has long been Tesla’s halo vehicle - the gullwing doors, sharp lines, and sportscar-like performance make a statement no matter where you go. These vehicles compete in a similar market, but the R1S has a distinct advantage in being able to seat more people and store more luggage, which is likely the same reason the Kia EV9 also outsold the Model X.

When we compared the Model X and R1S, we found them both to be amazing vehicles - but the Model X’s big advantage was the versatility of the gullwing doors and the overall quality of software and tech compared to Rivian’s offerings.

Time for a Refresh

All in all, both Model S and Model X desperately need a refresh. Tesla said its “other models” in the 2024 production and sales numbers added up to 85,133. These are global sales and account for the Semi, Cybertruck, Model S and Model X. However, if we add up the U.S. sales figures for the Cybertruck, Model S and Model X, the total comes to 71,246. That means that nearly all “Other models” sales were sold in the United States, leaving only about 14,000 of these vehicles being sold in other markets.

The remaining difference mostly went to Canada - simply because Tesla doesn’t offer an RHD variant of either vehicle anymore. Buyers in other markets have to purchase LHD vehicles - which can make things as simple as going through a drive-through or parking stall an awkward experience with a passenger in the front seat.

Refreshing both vehicles is going to be something Tesla will have to do sooner or later - they’re starting to get dated pretty quickly, and people like to see new changes to their vehicles. This is probably the prime time to do so - with the Cybertruck’s new 800V High Voltage and Low Voltage Architecture enabling both faster charging as well as Steer-By-Wire - enabling Tesla to simply install the steering wheel where required, rather than needing to engineer a different variant of the vehicle.

While we’ve heard rumors of a minor refresh with ambient lighting and a bumper camera, this hasn’t actually materialized in the year since we heard it. We haven’t even seen any additional vehicles or engineering variants for either vehicle.

While we’re at it, let’s look closely at the Model S Plaid. Once upon a time, the S Plaid was the king of the track. It was pretty much an uncontested ruler, but today, that’s changed. The Model S Plaid - even with the Track Pack equipped, isn’t the king anymore. That title has been ceded to vehicles with newer technological advances that take their flagship sportscars' improvements seriously. After all, why would you buy the second or third fastest car when you can afford the absolute fastest?

We’re hoping Tesla puts the pedal to the metal here and brings forward a full refresh of both the Model X and Model S - one that cements them as part of Tesla’s flagship lineup of vehicles.

The Political Angle

Kelley Blue Book

While Elon’s involvement in politics isn’t surprising, it appears it has played a role in sales. Even the Model 3 saw a sharp decline in sales, even after a recent refresh that provides a much better vehicle. The new Model 3 is a world above the Ford Mach-E, Ioniq5, and others, but somehow, those vehicles saw year-over-year sale improvements of 25%+ while the Model 3 was down 17%.

EVs have increased - but Tesla sales have seen a fairly sharp and drastic drop in 2024 - with the start of Elon taking his political stances. We don’t have a particular opinion on Elon’s politics - after all, to each their own - however, it is clear that he has isolated much of the left-wing political community in the United States - those who used to be Tesla’s staunchest supporters in the interest of an electric tomorrow.

Tesla Isn’t Going Anywhere

While Tesla sales may be down in several regions in 2024, we don’t expect this trend to continue in the long term. Global sales remain high thanks to China and Tesla adding new regions. We also expect price and software to eventually win and sales will rebound in the U.S./Europe during 2025.

We’re hoping that 2025 sees a more nuanced Elon who returns to bringing us awesome news about FSD, amazing advances in human spaceflight, and spectacularly wholesome news of healing paraplegia. 

The good news is that sales in China don’t appear to have been affected. No matter how it turns out, we still know that Tesla and Elon both are going to be bringing some absolutely insane new engineering - with the next-gen model arriving sometime in 2025, Optimus beginning to take its first steps, and Starship landing on those tiny little chopsticks.

pic.twitter.com/iGMDGwPsQ0

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 17, 2024

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You Can Now Track Tesla’s Robotaxi Deployment

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Thanks to Tesla Yoda on X, we have found out that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet is registered on the Texas Department of Transportation’s public-facing Automated Vehicle Deployment website. This makes the fleet’s movements publicly viewable and trackable, and marks a first for Tesla.

This isn’t just any old FSD test - this is the first officially acknowledged, government-tracked, and sanctioned deployment of a Tesla Model Y operating as a ride-share vehicle. But that’s not all - Texas DOT’s tracker notes that the Tesla does not have a safety driver.

View on the Map

Visitors to the Texas DOT website can filter for “Tesla”, and see, currently, a single active vehicle operating in the Austin Metro area. According to the state’s official data, here’s what we know:

Company: Tesla

Description: Ride-share service

Status in Texas: Testing

Safety Driver: No

The final point is definitely the most significant here. While Tesla has been testing FSD with safety drivers for some time in Austin and LA for employee-only testing, this is the first time that a vehicle has been officially registered and deployed on public roads without a human behind the wheel for safety. 

The fact that there is no safety driver officially shifts the liability from the occupant of the driver’s seat to Tesla, for the first time in a public setting. That’s already pretty significant - we previously dove into how Tesla plans to insure its own vehicles, and potentially owner vehicles in the Robotaxi fleets. 

The status currently lists Tesla as “Testing,” confirming that the service isn’t available to the public, but this is expected to change in the coming weeks.

This testing phase is likely part of a short but crucial period that lets Tesla capture data on the safety levels of its current iteration of Unsupervised FSD without a driver supervising. Tesla already stated that they’d be avoiding difficult areas, so this testing can also expose additional areas Tesla may want to avoid, such as school zones or blind driveways.

Tesla will need to prove, both internally and externally, that FSD Unsupervised has the necessary performance to safely navigate the streets without any incidents.

Regulatory Milestone

For years, the concept of a Tesla Robotaxi has been a future promise. Now, it's a present-day reality, albeit in a testing capacity.

Having an official government body list a Tesla as an active, driverless vehicle shows that they’ve been able to clear regulatory hurdles, which Tesla has often pointed to as the issue. It demonstrates a level of confidence from both Tesla and Texas regulators in the system's capabilities.

While it's just a single vehicle for today, we’ll likely see this list slowly expand over time. Alongside being able to track Robotaxi incidents at the City of Austin’s website, we’ll be able to closely watch Tesla’s progress with its first Robotaxi deployments.

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Tesla FSD in Europe: June Update

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The road to bringing FSD to Europe has been a long and complex one and filled with regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles. Elon Musk, as well as other members of Tesla’s AI team, have previously voiced their grievances with the regulatory approval process on X.

However, it appears that there is finally some progress in getting things moving with recent changes to upcoming autonomy regulations, but the process still seems slow.

Waiting on the Dutch

Elon commented on X recently, stating that Tesla is waiting for approval from Dutch authorities and then the EU to start rolling out FSD in Europe. Tesla is focusing on acquiring approvals from the Dutch transportation authority, which will provide them with the platform they need to gain broader acceptance in Europe. Outside of the Netherlands, Tesla is also conducting testing in Norway, which provides a couple of avenues for them to obtain national-level approval.

The frustration has been ongoing, with multiple committee meetings bringing up autonomy regulation but always pulling back at the last second before approving anything. The last meeting on Regulation 157, which governs Automated Lane Keeping Systems, concluded with authorities from the UK and Spain requesting additional time to analyze the data before reaching a conclusion.

Tesla, as well as Elon, have motioned several times for owners to reach out to their elected representatives to move the process forward, as it seems that Tesla’s own efforts are being stymied. 

This can seem odd, especially since Tesla has previously demoed FSD working exceptionally smoothly on European roads - and just did it again in Rome when they shared the video below on X.

FSD Supervised testing in Rome, Italy

Pending regulatory approval pic.twitter.com/TXh3uQIfrx

— Tesla Europe & Middle East (@teslaeurope) June 12, 2025

DCAS Phase 3

While the approval process has been slow, Kees Roelandschap pointed out that there may be a different regulatory step that could allow FSD to gain a foothold in Europe.

According to Kees, the European Commission is now taking a new approach to approving ADAS systems under the new DCAS Phase 3 regulations. The Commission is now seeking data from systems currently operational in the United States that can perform System-Initiated Maneuvers and don’t require hands-on intervention for every request.

This is key because those are two of the core functionalities that make FSD so usable, and it also means that there may not be a need to wait years for proper regulations to be written from scratch. Now, the Commission will be looking at real-world data based on existing, deployed technology, which could speed up the process immensely.

What This Means

This new, data-driven regulatory approach could be the path for Tesla to reach its previous target of September for European FSD. While the cogs of bureaucracy are ever slow, sometimes all it takes is a little data to have them turn a bit faster in this case.

Alongside specific countries granting approval for limited field testing with employees, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for FSD in Europe, and hopes are that a release will occur by the end of 2025. With Europe now looking to North America for how FSD is performing, Tesla’s Robotaxi results could also play a role.

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