A couple of weeks ago, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI, announced that Tesla would finally roll out an FSD update for vehicles with Hardware 3. Earlier this week, on December 30th, Tesla did just that and started a public rollout of FSD V12.6.
Since the initial rollout, the update has gone out in several other waves, but they’ve been extremely small. Thanks to several users, we know have our first look at FSD V12.6 and how it compares to the previous FSD version and to the latest version for Hardware 4 vehicles — FSD V13.2.2.1.
Vehicles receiving the FSD V12.6 update are coming from Tesla’s Holiday update, version 2024.44.25.2, which includes FSD V12.5.4.2.
While FSD V12.5 was a big step up from FSD V12.3.6 for most users, it did include its share of issues. The big two have been lane selection and behavior at traffic lights.
While the release notes for FSD V12.6 highlight features such as End-to-End on Highway, Improved City Streets Behavior, and Smoother and More Accurate Tracking, FSD V12.6 is noticeably smoother and more capable. It now handles turns and scenarios that it struggled with or simply couldn’t perform on FSD V12.5.
How it Compares to FSD V13
One of the key features of FSD V12.6 is a redesigned controller for smoother and more accurate tracking. This feature actually comes from FSD V13, so users should think of FSD 12.6 as a hybrid between FSD V12 and FSD V13. In fact, it seems like Tesla considered calling this version V13, but more on this later.
The controller referenced in the release notes is responsible for tracking objects around the vehicle. The vehicle can only drive as well as it can see, so the improved tracking accuracy directly improves FSD decision-making, leading to smoother driving. This is very evident in FSD V12.6, which now delivers a level of smoothness comparable to what users are experiencing in FSD V13.
Thanks to Rhys Samson, who has both FSD V12.6 and FSD 13.2, they directly compare the two versions and say that FSD V12.6 now operates as smoothly and confidently as his Cybertruck on FSD V13.2.
In their eyes, FSD 12.6 has done a lot to reduce, if not eliminate, the anxiety of not having AI4/HW4 in their Model S. This may change as AI4 vehicles continue to receive improvements while HW3 vehicles are expected to lag in FSD updates, but FSD V12.6 is a big step forward and could have arguably been called FSD V13.
Which Vehicles are Receiving V12.6
Right now, FSD V12.6 is only rolling out to Model S and Model X vehicles with Hardware 3. So far this has only been “refreshed” models, so it doesn’t include Model S/X cars prior to 2021. When the update was released on December 30th, Ashok Elluswamy stated that the update would be available for “other platforms,” presumably the Model 3 and Model Y, within a week. This puts us at around January 6th for other models. Ashok’s timelines have been extremely accurate and we believe Tesla will deliver this update sometime next week.
The Model 3 and Model Y are expected to be supported, but it’s not clear whether it’ll also include legacy Model S/X vehicles as well.
We expect this release to eventually become available for everyone soon, the only question would be whether it’d become available for legacy S/X vehicles with MCU 1. While the upgrade to MCU 2 isn’t cheap, any owners with an MCU 1 vehicle and HW3 would receive a much more capable vehicle by upgrading to the newer infotainment unit.
What About FSD V13 for HW3?
Rhys Samson
While we expected Tesla to release an FSD update for HW3 vehicles with the new end-to-end highway stack, FSD V13 was more of a wildcard. Would Tesla wait to upgrade HW3 vehicles with newer hardware or spend the time creating a smaller V13 model for HW3 vehicles?
Due to a small bug, it looks like we may have some insight into this question. Users who have installed FSD V12.6 will notice that while the release notes and the vehicle will call update 2024.45.25.10 FSD V12.6, the version shown in the app is actually quite different.
At the bottom of the main screen in the Tesla app, Tesla will show several bits of information, including your vehicle’s software version and the FSD version. While the vehicle software is correctly labeled as 2024.45.25.10, the FSD version actually mentions an unreleased FSD version — v13.2.3.
While this could simply be a bug or a typo, it could also be an indication that Tesla was considering calling this release FSD V13.2.3 and that it may have been a last-minute decision. While this may not mean much, it could be a sign that is already thinking about or developing FSD V13 for HW3 vehicles.
Keep in mind that many features for FSD V13 take advantage of the more powerful hardware, such as larger AI models and improved video feeds. However, other features could potentially be carried over to HW3.
Roll Out
While FSD V12.6 is still only available for the Model S and Model X, it continues to go out in increasingly larger waves. The last wave occurred overnight, and there’s a possibility of us seeing more today. Given the continued waves, it looks like everything is on track for a release to other models this weekend or early next week.
You can keep an eye out on our statistics page to track additional roll outs, and we’ll be sure to cover the release when it becomes available to more vehicles.
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Just over a week into the Robotaxi launch, Tesla began laying the groundwork for a more scalable remote supervision model, which will be key to achieving success with the Robotaxi Network.
About a week ago, Elon Musk posted on X that Tesla will likely reach the crucial safety threshold to enable this shift within a month or two. While that means at least another month of in-vehicle Safety Monitors, it does provide us with a timeline of what to expect.
As soon as we feel it is safe to do so.
Probably within a month or two. We continue to improve the Tesla AI with each mile driven.
This timeline came in response to a question about Tesla’s plans for the ratio of autonomous vehicles to remote supervisors. The more vehicles that a single human can supervise, the better, especially if that number can be reduced to something drastic, like a 100:1 ratio. A single human operator would be able to manage an entire city of Robotaxis, which will be critical to make the Robotaxi Network turn a profit.
While Tesla works towards that ambitious future, it is also taking immediate steps to improve the current user experience during the Austin pilot program, where 15-minute wait times have become the norm.
Solving for Wait Times
According to Eric E, one of Tesla’s principal engineers on Robotaxi, the current 15-minute wait times are a classic logistics challenge. The supply of vehicles is lower than the current demand for rides. To solve this, there’s a two-pronged solution for Tesla.
First, Tesla is directly increasing supply by hiring more Safety Monitors/Vehicle Operators in Austin, even hosting an on-site hiring event.
We're looking to hire more Vehicle Operators in Austin, TX to accelerate Robotaxi deployment. We will be hosting an onsite hiring event next Thursday. Please consider applying to the official job posting and completing this hiring event form:
Second, Tesla is working to make FSD and the Robotaxi fleet management software faster and smarter. This means they are utilizing the data from the pilot to better orchestrate the fleet by predicting demand and pre-positioning vehicles in prime locations to reduce wait times. After dropping someone off, the vehicle can start traveling to areas of higher demand, even if someone hasn’t booked a ride yet.
Next Up: Remote Supervision
These immediate fixes are all in service of that much larger goal. Scaling the Robotaxi Network isn’t just about having more cars; it’s about increasing the number of vehicles a single human can safely supervise remotely, which is a requirement for Robotaxi to turn a profit.
Elon’s comments give us this timeline. A more flexible and favorable ratio of 3:1 (although still far from the ideal 100:1) is likely to be achieved within a few months.
Tesla is committed to safety, as evidenced by the safety monitors in the vehicle. A single incident could not only tarnish the public’s view of the Robotaxi Network but could also halt Tesla’s operations altogether.
The data gathered from more Robotaxis on the road is crucial to the whole project. Tesla is gathering more data and issuing newer FSD builds specific to the Robotaxi.
As FSD requires less remote oversight per mile driven autonomously, Tesla can safely increase the number of vehicles per remote supervisor, moving the service closer to its ultimate goal.
Tesla has laid out an aggressive roadmap for the Robotaxi Network and its next few phases. We’ll have to wait and see just how this goes over the next few months, and whether they feel comfortable enough to increase the geo-fence and remove safety monitors.
Following the recent news of Grok being almost ready for Tesla vehicles, Elon Musk confirmed on X that the next major step is with Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid Robot. xAI’s advanced Grok models will eventually serve as the voice and brain for Optimus. This will be a convergence of Musk’s two biggest AI ventures — Tesla and xAI.
This will combine a physically humanoid robot - the brawn - with the new brains, Grok. This integration is more than just giving Optimus a voice - it suggests that Tesla is thinking ahead and possibly intends to use Grok to understand the environment around Optimus, while FSD will handle the robot’s movements.
The combination of Optimus and Grok creates a relationship where each component plays to its strengths.
For years, Tesla’s robotics team has been focused on the immense challenge of physical autonomy. Optimus learns complex tasks by observing humans, basically training itself through video by watching humans. This helps Optimus develop the physical dexterity needed to work in the real world. This is the brawn - the ability to navigate, manipulate objects, and perform useful work.
Grok provides the conversational brain. It adds a layer of natural language understanding, reasoning, and interaction. Instead of needing a computer, a specialized app, or pre-programming commands to give Optimus instructions, a user will be able to simply talk to it in a natural way. This makes Optimus infinitely more approachable and useful, especially for tasks in a dynamic environment, such as work or at home.
xAI and Tesla
Viewed from a different perspective, this move isn’t just about upgrading one product. It is the clearest evidence that xAI and Tesla are collaborating together to build a single, unified AI platform. Musk’s biographer, Walter Isaacson, believes Tesla and xAI will merge. Seeing Tesla and xAI both play critical roles in creating Optimus makes us believe that it may very well be the case.
Transformation to a Humanoid Robot
The confirmation of Grok in Optimus is one of the most significant milestones for the project to date. While Optimus’s ability to walk and work (and dance) is already an incredible engineering feat, it has all been physical abilities so far. Adding the ability to interact with Optimus in a human-like way will transform Grok from a machine to a true, general-purpose humanoid robot.
The ability to understand nuanced requests, ask clarifying questions, and respond intelligently is what will ultimately make Optimus a daily fixture in our lives.