Tesla vs. BYD: Could Tesla Fall to Number Two?

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For years, the Tesla community has joked, "The competition is coming," because every EV talked about was suddenly the Tesla killer. Recent numbers show no competition for Tesla in North America; all the other manufacturers could pool their numbers together and still not come close to Tesla's sales.

The latest sales figures prompted Elon Musk to state once again, "The competition is coming." There's no denying that Musk's company has reshaped the automotive world's landscape, especially in North America, where its supremacy is almost undisputed. However, when we cast our eyes further East to China, a different story begins to unravel, and a formidable challenger, BYD, steps onto the stage. That casual comment is starting to sound increasingly prophetic.

Q3 Numbers Show BYD is Coming

The latest Q3 sales data reveals an intriguing trend. While Tesla delivered a commendable 435,059 pure electric cars, BYD was hot on its heels with sales of 431,603 pure electric passenger vehicles. This places BYD's EV sales at an impressive 99.21% of Tesla's for this quarter. To provide context, Tesla outsold BYD by more than 670,000 vehicles in the preceding six quarters. Now, the sales gap has narrowed dramatically to a mere 3,456 units.

Moreover, while Tesla's quarter-to-quarter growth experienced a dip of 6.7% (mainly due to factory shutdown for retooling and buyers awaiting the new Model 3), BYD's pure EV sales witnessed a significant surge, boasting a year-on-year growth of 66.9%. Current trends suggest BYD might even surpass Tesla in the upcoming Q4 sales.

Global EV Race Is Just Starting

Both companies manifest global ambitions, setting up vehicle factories in various parts of the world. Tesla's footprint extends worldwide, with an upcoming factory in Mexico. In contrast, BYD is bolstering its position with facilities in China and substantial investments in countries like Uzbekistan, Thailand, and Brazil. But, BYD is now looking at the North American market with a starting point in Mexico.

The global stage is set for fierce competition between these automotive giants. BYD's aggressive push into the Mexican market with its electric offerings, like the recently unveiled DOLPHIN, underlines its global ambitions. As the brand further cements its presence, with endeavors like expanding to 50 dealership stores across all 32 Mexican states, the groundwork for a North American entry seems to be laid.

Beyond just numbers, BYD's commitment to innovation is evident. The DOLPHIN, for instance, with its unique "Ocean Aesthetics design philosophy," its efficient fast-charging capability, and a range of 405 km, exemplifies the company's drive to merge aesthetics with performance. Additionally, their play isn't solely in the EV space; BYD's diverse technological background spanning over 28 years across different sectors sets them apart.

Competition is Good

Yet, framing this as a mere 'Tesla vs. BYD' scenario would be remiss. This growth and competition signify a more considerable momentum in the global shift towards sustainable transportation. As BYD expands its footprint, it reinforces the idea that the EV revolution is not a monopoly but a collective endeavor. However, for Tesla enthusiasts and market analysts alike, the movements of BYD, especially in China, are becoming impossible to ignore.

While Tesla has been enjoying its reign, BYD's recent strides remind us that the crown is up for grabs in the dynamic world of electric vehicles. Elon Musk's playful warning might have been more prescient than anyone realized: the competition is not just coming; it's already here.

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NHTSA Probes Tesla’s Robotaxi Plans; Seeks Answers on FSD in Poor Weather

Not a Tesla App

As anticipation builds for Tesla’s Robotaxi network debut in Austin, potentially just a few short weeks away, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is turning its official eye onto Tesla. The ask? How will Tesla’s FSD handle the unpredictable realities of challenging weather?

The NHTSA Request

The NHTSA has sent a formal letter to Tesla, which was made public on May 12th, requesting detailed information about Tesla’s Robotaxi service. The NHTSA inquiry centers specifically on the safety and performance of FSD when faced with reduced visibility conditions like rain, fog, and sun glare. The request is tied to an ongoing NHTSA investigation, which was initiated in October 2023, examining Tesla’s FSD and Autopilot suite following incidents in poor visibility.

Tesla’s executives, including Elon Musk, have previously stated that the company is full steam ahead to launch Robotaxi in Austin this June. However, NHTSA’s pointed questions come even as Tesla has recently discussed its plans to work on region-specific and weather-specific FSD training.

Tesla’s executive leadership acknowledged the need to adapt the system to diverse environmental and weather conditions. Now, regulators want specifics on how Tesla intends to address environmental conditions and how that translates to operational safety for the fleet.

Request Breakdown

NHTSA’s letter outlines a need for detailed information from Tesla before the service launches and covers several key areas. We’ve broken this down into various sections below:

Deployment Scale

NHTSA is looking for the exact number of vehicles and models that will be part of the initial Austin fleet, and what the projected service availability times would be for said fleet. Tesla has previously said it’d launch with 10-20 Model Ys, but looks like NHTSA is looking for additional details.

Oversight

In terms of oversight, NHTSA is looking to confirm whether the Robotaxis will operate under real-time supervision of Tesla’s employees, either remotely or in-vehicle.

This is a question on our minds as well. A recent app update suggested that Tesla could have a driver in the vehicle, but it wasn’t clear whether this was referring to Tesla’s own fleet or customer-owned vehicles. The only thing we have heard officially from Tesla is that Tesla “may” use remote support, but that they were still looking into it.

Adverse Weather Capabilities

This is the meat and potatoes of the request - how will Tesla ensure safety during sun glare, fog, heavy rain, snow, or dust? What specific protocols are triggered if poor visibility is encountered mid-trip? Will the vehicle pull over or call home and cancel rides?

Sensor Technology

Surprisingly, NHTSA is looking for details regarding the vehicle the Robotaxi sensor suites and how Tesla intends to use those sensors to ensure safe operation under varied conditions. NHTSA has had previous submissions from Tesla in regard to its sensor suite and how it uses the technology, so it feels odd that they are requesting another batch - but this could be related to the use of the next generation of FSD (Unsupervised).

Compliance

Does Tesla’s FSD system adhere, either fully or partially, to established industry standards for autonomous driving? This likely refers to the NHTSA Automated Vehicles for Safety guidebook, which lays out the “L0 to L5” driver assistance vs automation system.

Future Expansion

Finally, NHTSA is looking for the timeline for enabling Robotaxi functionality on vehicles not directly owned or controlled by Tesla. Tesla has already come out and said that customer-owned vehicles wouldn’t be allowed on the robotaxi network until 2026, but obviously, NHTSA wants to hear directly from Tesla and likely has more specific questions covering a wide variety of potential issues.

These questions will likely have to be answered with considerable amounts of data and justification for the NHTSA. Once all that is done, Tesla will be in a better position to receive regulatory approval at a larger scale than just within the city of Austin or the state of Texa with the NHTSA’s backing.

Successfully addressing this letter will be the key for Unsupervised FSD moving forward, but Tesla hasn’t issued a public response to the agency’s letter, and likely won’t in a public manner. So we’ll have to wait and see how the launch of the Robotaxi network pans out next month.

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FSD V13.2.9 Rolls Out for HW4 as Part of Tesla’s 2025.14.6 Update

Not a Tesla App

After an 84-day wait since the last FSD update, Tesla has finally begun rolling out a new version of FSD V13 to its AI4-equipped vehicles. This new release, V13.2.9, is rolling out to all vehicles, including the Cybertruck.

Unfortunately, since it’s a minor point release (from V13.2.8), the release notes are the same, and Tesla hasn’t included a change log or changed what’s coming in the future.

Software Update 2025.14.6

The FSD update is rolling out with Tesla software update 2025.14.6. Interestingly, update 2025.14.6 is seeing a wider distribution and is also being made available to vehicles without FSD and outside North America. For those vehicles, this update just includes bug fixes.

TCU Fix

There’s one fix in particular that’s expected to be included in this update, according to a message from Tesla Service. In earlier 2025.14 updates, there was a bug in some vehicles that prevented some vehicles from falling asleep properly due to a Telematics Control Unit (TCU) issue. This bug caused additional battery drain since some of the vehicle’s systems remained on.

Tesla Service said they planned to include a bug fix in update 2025.14.6, but it hasn’t been confirmed whether the fix actually made it out in this release.

Early Access Users and More

FSD v13.2.9 was first rolled out to Tesla’s standard Early Access group, including well-known community members and content creators. It has also reached participants in the newer, Texas-based Early Access Program, suggesting that the update is relatively stable and may serve as a foundation for upcoming FSD releases.

Tesla could be intending to use the Texas Early Access Program to test various features, perhaps related to the upcoming Robotaxi network launch in Austin. While this is plausible, it is merely speculation, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on that group to see what exactly Tesla does.

HW3 Users

While Tesla has recently been including FSD updates for HW3 and HW4 in the same release, this update does not include any changes for HW3 users. HW3 vehicles that are receiving this update are staying on FSD V12.6.4, which means that whichever fixes this update includes they’re specific to FSD V13 or HW4.

Point Release - Not Much New

Being a point release, V13.2.9 isn’t expected to introduce any major new capabilities. Tesla hasn’t provided specific release notes detailing changes from V13.2.8.

Hopefully, Tesla has taken into account recent user feedback on V13.2.8 about lane centering and lane selection, and this update addresses some of those issues. However, early feedback is that those issues are still present.

There is always potential for a more substantial update in the near future, so keep your fingers crossed, but after such a long wait, we expected more to be included. It seems like Tesla may have felt the need to address a bug in this release instead of waiting for the next major release, which is expected to either be FSD V13.3 or FSD V14.

Roll Out

The fact that Software Update 2025.14.6 is going out wider than the Early Access audience suggests that Tesla is confident in this release and that it likely only includes very minor changes. We expect this update to continue going out over the coming days.

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