As Tesla prepares to release its third-quarter earnings amidst a wave of speculation and market uncertainty, the eyes of analysts and investors are fixed firmly on the EV giant. Dan Levy of Barclays, often a supporter of Tesla, forecasts potential delivery shortfalls, setting the scene for a pivotal report that could influence Tesla's trajectory in the coming quarters.
Potential Hurdles: The China Factor, Model 3, and Cybertruck
The anticipated 455,000 units for the quarter, while substantial, fall shy of the expected 463,000, prompting questions regarding Tesla's ability to meet Wall Street's projections. China, representing a significant portion of Tesla's market, poses a particular challenge. A 31% dip in Tesla's China-made vehicle sales from June to July marks the first decline since the previous December, spotlighting potential hurdles in this vital market.
The introduction of the revamped Model 3 generates both opportunities and challenges. The anticipation of a new model may be causing potential buyers to delay purchases, impacting sales globally. This shift in consumer behavior necessitates efficient inventory management to clear out older models and make way for the refreshed Model 3. But just how much does Tesla have to discount the original Model 3? There is still no firm date for the Highland coming to North America.
The upcoming Cybertruck, with over 2 million reservations, represents another variable in Tesla's equation. While many reservation holders may already own a Tesla, many are likely biding their time, holding on to their traditional ICE vehicles as they await the arrival of Tesla's innovative electric truck.
Navigating Challenges: Analysts' Stance and Market Sentiment
Despite these challenges, the analyst community holds a generally neutral view of Tesla. Strategic adjustments in production, pricing strategies, and external factors like the ongoing United Auto Workers strike affecting other automakers could benefit Tesla. While there may be a miss on this quarter, there are likely to be significant numbers ahead. When the new Model 3 and Cybertruck are available, there will be a lot of demand and a lot of deliveries.
With the release of next week's earnings report, Tesla is at a crucial juncture. The China factor, consumer anticipation for new models, and internal strategic adjustments set the stage for a closely watched reveal. The report is more than just a revelation of numbers; it's a litmus test for the company's strategic decisions, market adaptability, and ability to meet growing expectations.
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To show off its scalability, Tesla has officially launched its first major expansion of its Robotaxi service area in Austin, Texas. The expansion comes just 22 days after the program’s initial public launch.
That’s a stunningly quick pace that sets a benchmark for how fast we’ll be expecting Tesla to roll out additional expansions as they validate and safety-check in additional area and cities. The new geofence not only adds a significant amount of new territory, but also makes Tesla’s service area in Austin approximately 4 miles larger than Waymo’s.
The expansion, which went live for users in the early access program earlier today, reshapes the map into… what we can call an upside-down T. It helps connect more parts of the city, and increases the service area by more than double.
So far, the initial launch has been operating without any significant issues, which means Tesla is ready and willing to continue expanding the program.
Rapid Scaling
While the larger map is a clear win for early-access users and especially those who live in Austin, the most significant aspect here is just how fast Tesla is going. Achieving a major expansion in just over three weeks since its initial launch is a testament to Tesla’s generalized autonomy approach with vision only.
Unlike methods that require intensive, street-by-street HD mapping that can take months or even years just to expand to a few new streets, Tesla’s strategy is built for this type of speed.
This is Tesla’s key advantage - it can leverage its massive fleet and AI to build a generalized, easily-applicable understanding of the world. Expanding to a new area becomes less about building a brand-new, high-definition map of every street light and obstacle, but instead a targeted safety validation process.
Tesla can deploy a fleet of validation vehicles to intensely focus on one zone, allowing the neural nets to learn the quirks of that area’s intersections and traffic flows. Once a high level of safety and reliability is demonstrated, Tesla can simply just redraw the geofence.
Tesla went from approximately 19.7 sq mi (51 sq km) to 42.07 sq mi (109 sq km)in just 22 days, following the initial launch and safety validation. Within a few short days of launch, we began seeing the first Tesla engineering validation vehicles, hitting Austin’s downtown core, preparing for the next phase.
The larger footprint means more utility for riders, and that’s big, especially since the new service area is approximately four square miles larger than Waymo’s established operational zone in the city.
Highways and Fleet Size
The new territory enables longer and more practical trips, with the longest trip at tip-to-tip taking about 42 minutes from the southern edge of the old geofence to the northern edge of the new geofence. For now, Tesla has limited its fleet to operating exclusively on surface streets and does not use highways to complete its routes.
We also don’t know if Tesla has increased the vehicle fleet size quite yet - but if they’re intending to maintain or reduce wait times for even the early-access riders, the fleet size will easily need to be doubled to keep up with the new area.
This video clip shows the @robotaxi follows the Interstate (I-35) but does not take the highest.
Perhaps the most telling bit about how fast Tesla is expanding is that they’re already laying the groundwork for the next expansion. Validation vehicles have been spotted operating in Kyle, Texas, approximately 20 miles south of the geofence’s southern border.
Robotaxi Validation vehicles operating in Kyle, Texas.
Financial_Weight_989 on Reddit
This means that while one expansion is being rolled out to the public, Tesla is already having its engineering and validation teams work on the next expansion. That relentless pace means that if this keeps up, Tesla will likely have a good portion of the Austin metropolitan area - the zone they’ve applied for their Autonomy license for - serviceable by the end of 2025.
The pilot? A success. The first expansion? Done. The second expansion? Already in progress. Robotaxi is going to go places, and the next question won't be about whether the network is going to grow. Instead, the new questions are: How fast, and where next?
One of the most welcome features of the recently refreshed 2026 Model S and Model X is the addition of a front bumper camera. Now, thanks to some clever work by the Tesla community, it has been confirmed that this highly requested feature can be retrofitted onto older HW4-equipped (AI4) Model S and Model X vehicles.
The discovery and first installation were performed by Yaro on a Model X, and Tesla hacker Green helped provide some additional insight on the software side.
Unused Port and a Software Switch
The foundation for this retrofit has been in place for a long time, laid by Tesla itself. All HW4-equipped Model S and Model X vehicles, even those built before the recent refresh, have an empty, unused camera connector slot on the FSD computer, seemingly waiting for this exact purpose.
While the physical port is there, getting the car to recognize the camera requires a software change. According to Green, a simple configuration flag change is all that is needed to enable the front camera view on the vehicle’s main display once the hardware is connected and ready.
Yaro, who performed the installation on a Model X, provided a detailed breakdown of the parts and approximate costs involved.
Front Camera - $200 USD
Bumper Grill (with camera cutout) - $80 USD
Bumper Harness - $130 USD
Washer Pump - $15 USD
Washer Hoses - $30 USD
The total cost for the Model X hardware comes to around $455 USD, which isn’t too expensive if you were to DIY it. Tesla’s Electronic Parts Catalog has some of these parts available for order, and some can be ordered via your local Service Center. Yaro did note that he had to jerry-rig the camera connector cable, having salvaged the cable from a different camera harness.
The Model S vs Model X
This is where the project varies significantly. For the Model X, the retrofit is relatively simple. Because the main bumper shape is the same, only the lower bumper grill needs to be swapped for the version with the camera opening, along with installing the camera itself and the washer hardware.
For the Model S, the process is a bit more complex and expensive. Due to the different shape of the pre-refresh bumper, the entire front fascia assembly must be replaced to accommodate the camera. This makes the project far more expensive and laborious.
DIY or Official Retrofit?
The official front bumper camera on the Model X
Not a Tesla App
Right now, this is only a DIY retrofit. Tesla hasn’t indicated that they intend to offer this as an official retrofit for older vehicles at this time, but given the fact that it isn’t too complex, we expect that there is a possibility that they may do so in the near future.
All in all, this is about 3-5 hours of labor for the Model X, and approximately 5-7 hours of labor for the Model S, based on the official Tesla Service Manuals, using the front fascia reinstall process as a guide.
That means if Tesla does offer this as a retrofit service, it will likely cost between $800 and $1,200 USD when factoring in Tesla’s labor rates, but the total cost will vary regionally.
For those who own an AI4 Model S or Model X, it could be possible to request service for this installation, but as far as we’re aware, there is no official service notice for this retrofit at this time.
What About the Model 3?
For owners of the refreshed Highland Model 3, the only vehicle now left without a front bumper camera, the possibility of a retrofit is still uncertain. It has been noted by Green that some, but not all Model 3s built in late 2024 have an empty camera port on the FSD computer. This inconsistency means that while a retrofit may be possible for a subset of Model 3s, it isn’t a guaranteed upgrade path like it is for the Model S or Model X.
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