Musk is more specific about his FSD claims this time around
Not a Tesla App
Elon Musk has once again stated Tesla's cars will be fully self-driving by the end of the year. The claim, made during an AI conference in China (video below), is the latest entry in a long string of such predictions from Musk. Despite the seemingly unfaltering progress of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the authenticity of Musk's claims has been questioned due to his history of similar yet unfulfilled promises.
The Most Recent Claim: A More Definitive Prediction?
In his latest statement, Musk ventured to be more specific about Tesla's progress. He suggested the company is on the cusp of achieving Level 4 or even Level 5 autonomous driving. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), these levels signify full autonomy in specific conditions (Level 4) or all conditions (Level 5).
The levels of vehicle automation as defined by SAE
SAE
However, this prediction has been met with skepticism, and understandably so. After all, Musk has previously set and then missed similar timelines for Tesla's full self-driving capabilities. The question on everyone's mind is whether this renewed specificity indicates an imminent breakthrough or just another overly optimistic prediction.
Musk's Full Autonomy Promises: A Brief History
Elon Musk has a track record of optimism regarding Tesla's autonomous capabilities. As early as 2016, Musk stated that all cars Tesla sold would be capable of self-driving. Through subsequent software updates, these vehicles would eventually exceed human safety performance in driving, creating a paradigm shift in personal transportation.
As ambitious as this claim was, it was embraced with excitement by Tesla's avid fan base and many technology enthusiasts alike. After all, the concept of a car that can safely ferry its passengers from point A to point B without human intervention seems like a future worth waiting for.
However, the waiting has been longer than Musk initially suggested. Since the release of the FSD Beta, Tesla's path toward a self-driving future has become somewhat obscured. Phrases such as "feature complete" and "capable of driving at a level safer than humans" have begun to populate Tesla's communications about their self-driving technology. However, a clear timeline or roadmap detailing when the FSD will transition from beta to a fully realized product has been less apparent.
The Autonomous Driving Landscape: Looking Beyond Tesla
The quest for full autonomy is not just a Tesla story; it's an industry-wide endeavor. Tesla might be the most vocal about its self-driving ambitions, but they are far from being the only player in the field. Many other automakers and tech companies are tirelessly working towards similar goals, each with its approach and timeline.
The implications of achieving full autonomy are immense. The potential benefits are significant, from a decrease in traffic accidents to the possibility of a fully automated taxi service. However, reaching this future is not just a matter of technological achievement. It also involves overcoming regulatory hurdles, societal acceptance, and a host of ethical considerations.
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For the first time in quite a while, Tesla has increased the price of one of its vehicle offerings. The Model S Long Range and the Model S Plaid have both received a hefty price increase. However, not all is bad - as Tesla also added a new benefit for buyers.
Price Increase
The price increase for the Model S is $5,000 - currently only in the United States. This price increase will likely impact other markets, including Canada, in the coming days.
The Model S Long Range now starts at $79,990, while the Model S Plaid now starts at $94,990. The Model S and Model X now have the same starting price. Interestingly, that’s also the same pricing point for the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast Trimotor non-Foundation Series.
The vehicle configuration does not appear to have changed, so the new pricing is simply an increase rather than the addition or removal of features. Tesla previously cut the price of the Model S and Model X by 15% in 2023, so this could simply be an adjustment to ensure that the vehicle pricing stays in line with inflation and other factors.
Free Lifetime Supercharging
For those on the fence about ordering a Model S, Tesla has brought back Free Lifetime Supercharging when you order a new Model S on or after December 13, 2024. As always, Free Lifetime Supercharging is restricted to the buyer’s Tesla account and to that specific vehicle. It cannot be transferred to another vehicle or another owner after ownership transfer. It’s worth noting, that it also doesn’t exclude the owner from receiving Supercharger idle fees or congestion fees. There is currently no end date for this promotion.
There are currently no changes to the Model X, neither a price increase nor the addition of Lifetime Superchargering. However, when Tesla makes changes to one of their premium vehicles, it usually affects the other one as well. So be on the lookout for potential changes to the Model X offering in the coming days.
We’ve seen Tesla value Lifetime Supercharging at $5,000, so this falls in line with the price increase we’re seeing. It’s possible that Tesla will begin to bring back Lifetime Supercharging as a perk for buying into their more premium Model S and Model X cars, or this could be another temporary promotion to get buyers who are on the fence to go ahead and make their purchase while this promotion lasts.
Tesla recently showed off a demo of Optimus, its humanoid robot, walking around in moderately challenging terrain—not on a flat surface but on dirt and slopes. These things can be difficult for a humanoid robot, especially during the training cycle.
Most interestingly, Milan Kovac, VP of Engineering for Optimus, clarified what it takes to get Optimus to this stage. Let’s break down what he said.
Optimus is Blind
Optimus is getting seriously good at walking now - it can keep its balance over uneven ground - even while walking blind. Tesla is currently using just the sensors, all powered by a neural net running on the embedded computer.
Essentially, Tesla is building Optimus from the ground up, relying on as much additional data as possible while it trains vision. This is similar to how they train FSD on vehicles, using LiDAR rigs to validate the vision system’s accuracy. While Optimus doesn’t have LiDAR, it relies on all those other sensors on board, many of which will likely become simplified as vision takes over as the primary sensor.
Today, Optimus is walking blind, but it’s able to react almost instantly to changes in the terrain underneath it, even if it falls or slips.
What’s Next?
Next up, Tesla AI will be adding vision to Optimus - helping complete the neural net. Remember, Optimus runs on the same overall AI stack as FSD - in fact, Optimus uses an FSD computer and an offshoot of the FSD stack for vision-based tasks.
Milan mentions they’re planning on adding vision to help the robot plan ahead and improve its walking gait. While the zombie shuffle is iconic and a little bit amusing, getting humanoid robots to walk like humans is actually difficult.
There’s plenty more, too - including better responsiveness to velocity and direction commands and learning to fall and stand back up. Falling while protecting yourself to minimize damage is something natural to humans - but not exactly natural to something like a robot. Training it to do so is essential in keeping the robot, the environment around it, and the people it is interacting with safe.
We’re excited to see what’s coming with Optimus next because it is already getting started in some fashion in Tesla’s factories.
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