With an attentive driver, Tesla's Autopilot is 10x safer than the average vehicle
Nigel McGill/YouTube
Tesla released new Autopilot data just one day after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) had an impromptu chat with reporters. The acting head, Ann Carlson, said her agency was devoting significant resources to the ongoing extensive investigation of crashes involving Tesla on Autopilot. Carlson said she wanted to ensure the agency had all of the information. Tesla just gave it to her.
Tesla's Data Proves a Point
“We are proud of Autopilot’s performance and its impact on reducing traffic collisions,” the company states with a January 2023 Vehicle Safety Report update. The numbers are staggering. In the 3rd quarter, one crash was recorded for every 6.26 million miles driven using Autopilot. Teslas not using Autopilot technology logged one crash for every 1.71 million miles driven.
For comparison, the NHTSA estimated one automobile crash every 652,000 miles. That equates to Tesla drivers without Autopilot engaged being 2.5 times safer and with Autopilot being used ten times safer than the national average.
Why Did Tesla Stop Reporting?
The company states, “the benefit and promise of Autopilot is clear from the Vehicle Safety Report data that we have been sharing for 4 years.” Tesla stopped publishing the numbers in 2021. It explained that data collection needed improvement, “Specifically, we discovered reports of certain events where no airbag or other active restraint deployed, single events that were counted more than once, and reports of invalid or duplicated mileage records.”
Incredible Improvement Year-Over-Year
Tesla issued all of the information from the quarters that were missing. There’s a significant improvement in year-over-year data. In the third quarter of 2021, Tesla recorded one crash per 5.54 million miles with Autopilot; that number has increased to 6.26 million. While Tesla drivers without Autopilot were involved in a crash once every 1.58 million, that is now 1.71.
Tesla's commitment to developing the safest cars in the world was recently put in the spotlight when four people were unharmed after a horrifying 250-foot drop off a cliff in California. The Model Y protected the two adults and two children inside, and firefighters called it a miracle.
The company continually receives accolades for safety. When it’s already producing the safest cars in the world, Tesla can only compete with itself. As we know from watching Tesla’s A.I. Day, a team of engineers is working with the most bleeding-edge technology to continue to improve the product. For that, we thank them.
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The massive legislative effort titled the "Big Beautiful Bill" is taking direct aim at what has become one of Tesla’s most critical and profitable revenue streams: the sale of US regulatory credits. The bill could eliminate billions of dollars from Tesla’s bottom line each year and will slow down the transition to electric vehicles in the US.
The financial stakes for Tesla are absolutely immense. In 2024, Tesla generated $2.76 billion from selling these credits. This high-margin revenue was the sole reason Tesla posted a profit in Q1 2025; without the $595 million from regulatory credits, Tesla’s reported $409 million in profit would have been a $189 million loss.
How the ZEV Credit System Works
Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits are part of state-level programs, led by California, designed to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. Each year, automakers are required to hold a certain number of ZEV credits, with the amount based on their total vehicle sales within that state. Under this system, automakers that fail to sell a certain percentage of zero-emission vehicles must either pay a significant fine or purchase credits from a company that exceeds the mandate.
Automakers who fail to sell enough EVs to meet their quota have a deficit and face two choices: pay a hefty fine to the state government for each missing credit (for example, $5,000 per credit in California) or buy credits from a company with a surplus.
As an all-EV company, Tesla generates a massive surplus of these credits. It can then turn around and sell them to legacy automakers at prices cheaper than the fine, creating a win-win scenario: the legacy automaker avoids a larger penalty, and Tesla gains a lucrative, near-pure-profit revenue stream.
This new bill will dismantle this by eliminating the financial penalties for non-compliance, which would effectively make Tesla’s credits worthless. While the ZEV program is a state law, the Big Beautiful Bill will fully eliminate the penalties at a federal level.
A Multi-Billion Dollar Impact
The removal of US ZEGV credits would be a severe blow to Tesla’s financials. One JPMorgan analyst estimated that the move could reduce Tesla’s earnings by over 50%, representing a potential annual loss of $2 billion. While Tesla also earns similar credits in Europe and China, analysts suggest that 80-90% of its credit revenue in Q1 2025 came from US programs.
Why the Program Exists
While the impact on Tesla would be direct and immediate, the credit system has a wider purpose. It creates a strong financial incentive for legacy automakers to develop and accelerate their zero-emission vehicle programs, whether it’s hydrogen, electric, or another alternative.
Eliminating the need for these credits would remove that financial pressure. This could allow traditional automakers to slow their EV transition in the US without the fear of a financial penalty, potentially leading to fewer EV choices for consumers and a slower path to vehicle electrification in the country.
Big, But Not Beautiful
On Sunday Morning TV, Elon Musk was asked his thoughts on the Big Beautiful Bill. They were pretty simple. A bill could be big, or it could be beautiful - I don’t know if it can be both, Musk stated.
Elon Musk in new interview: "I was disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit and undermines the work the DOGE team is doing. I think a bill could be big, or it could be beautiful—I don't know if it can be both." pic.twitter.com/DnyjHN7xCY
The bill poses a threat to Tesla’s bottom line and to the adoption of EVs in the US market, where automakers will no longer have a financial incentive to transition to cleaner vehicles, a market they’ve regularly struggled in when competing against Tesla.
Tesla will have to work carefully in the future to cut expenses to remain profitable after the elimination of these regulatory credits.
Tesla is rolling out a thoughtful and much-needed update to its in-vehicle Supercharger UI. The update is designed to provide drivers with details about Superchargers and their locations.
The update will add new icons and contextual messages to clarify Supercharger access requirements or restrictions, such as paid parking. There’s nothing worse than navigating to a Supercharger only to find out it's only for customers, requires paid parking, or some other service.
The new details will appear in various locations, including the Supercharger list, Supercharger module, and above the navigation directions when navigating to a Supercharger.
The new Supercharger icons will indicate the following requirements:
Valet-only Parking
Pay to Park
Access Codes
Parking Floor (the floor the Supercharge is on in a parking garage)
These icons are initially displayed when you’re searching for a Supercharger in the list of Superchargers. Additionally, when navigating to a site that includes any of the above, your vehicle will now display specific alerts for access requirements.
Access Codes and Parking Floor information will be provided above the navigation card when you reach the destination.
Solving Common Frustrations
Not a Tesla App
While these may seem like minor tweaks, they are a direct solution to some long-standing and common frustrations for many Tesla owners. Many drivers have likely experienced the scenario of following navigation to an unfamiliar urban Supercharger, only to arrive and discover it’s buried deep within a paid parking garage, with no advance warning of the fees or specific floor location.
This update provides all the critical information upfront so that drivers can make informed decisions on where they would like to charge. No more surprise parking fees, no circling a multi-level garage at 3% battery, desperately searching for the red and white Supercharger signs, and no more getting stuck searching for an access code to charge.
Little Details Matter
These Supercharger updates are the definition of quality-of-life improvements. Little details that make a big difference in usability.
As the Supercharger network continues its massive expansion into more complex and densely populated urban centers, providing this kind of granular, logistical data becomes increasingly important.
Release Date
While Tesla hasn’t announced when these features will be added, they’ll likely be included in the next major Tesla software update, presumably update 2025.24 or 2025.26.
The Tesla app was recently updated to v4.46.5 and added the ability to restrict location visibility for other drivers of the vehicle. Although the app update didn’t include these Supercharger updates, we expect these new Supercharger details to also be added to the Tesla app soon.
