FSD Beta numbers and everything else revealed at Tesla's Q2 earnings call

July 21, 2022

By Dan Burkland

Tesla produces its 2 millionth vehicle at Fremont/Nevada

Tesla

Yesterday Tesla held its second quarter earnings call. Although Elon Musk has previously said he wouldn't be on earnings calls in the future, he did make this one.

As with previous earnings calls, plenty of data and statistics were revealed relating to production, future products, and FSD Beta.

Below is a recap of the entire event, including the Q&A session. The recap was originally posted to dburkland.com.

You can also listen to the earnings call below. The call begins at the 11 minute mark.

Opening remarks from Elon Musk

Unique quarter for Tesla due to Shanghai shutdown
Production records achieved in Fremont & Shanghai
Set up nicely for record breaking 2nd half of 2022
Past years have thrown several force majeure at Tesla yet the team continues to overcome
Giga Berlin Production Ramp continues with 1000 cars / week in June, Giga Austin to follow with the same number in the next few months
Still making cars w/ 2170 cells in parallel and important to note they aren’t dependent on 4680s and will still hit their production numbers
FSD Beta deployed to over 100,000 owners
5-6 years ago they set out to be the best manufacturer in the world
- Pro-manufacturing mindset has given them a competitive edge

Currently make the largest castings in the world
As a result of improved manufacturing processes in Berlin & Texas, Tesla has reduced body welding robot count by 70% per unit of capacity
- Body shop is roughly 3x smaller as it would be otherwise
- New vehicle bodies are lighter, cheaper, and quieter thanks to reduction in NVH
- Another level of simplicity and improvements are coming with Cybertruck (as well as future products coming down the road)
Intelligent seat belt tensioning based on vision system recently released, first in the industry to do this
- Can also adjust the airbag deployment as well
- Delivered via OTA update
- Will have profound impact on passenger safety
- Compatible for all HW3-equipped Teslas

Cybertruck
- Production still expected to start middle of 2023
- “Best product ever” -Elon
FSD Beta
- Planned to be released to all North American customers by end of 2022
- FSD will then be released to other geos such as Asia and EU soon after pending regulatory approval

Opening remarks from Zach Kirkhorn

Made substantial progress in almost every area of the business
New production records reached in existing factories and new ones actively ramping
Highest solar production volumes in years
Temporary shutdown had noticeable impact to vehicle margin
- Factory ramping also associated with negative impact on vehicle margin
Inflation, commodities, and logistics continue to be headwinds
Resource constrained on Powerwall and Megapack which should be resolved in the 2nd half of 2022
Austin & Berlin operating costs are going down as production ramps up
Tesla sold 75% of Bitcoin holdings
- They did so as they were uncertain when COVID lockdowns in China would end
- As a result they wanted to maximize cash position
- They are still interested in Bitcoin and have not yet sold any Dogecoin
Highest operating margins ever at 14.6%
Still targeting 50% of growth and still within reach

Q&A

Chinese EV Manufacturers & Software Innovation
- Elon believes Tesla China is the best EV manufacturer in China
- Chinese car companies will be a force to be reckoned with going forward
- Tesla has respect for Chinese automakers but believes they have whats necessary to compete
Unified Vector Space
- Unified Vector Space would be if instead of knitting together dynamic & static objects w/ C++ you knit them together at the NN level (meaning you no longer need to reconcile them in C++ heuristics)
- Architecturally better way
- Slight improvement in efficiency of FSD stack and something they want to get to
- Nirvana situation would be to have surround video auto labeling for all static & dynamic objects as well as surround video inference w/ spacial memory
- Elon believes they have a unified vector space by the end of 2022
- Elon is also very confident that Tesla will improve the frame rate as they delete legacy NNs and further optimize the FSD software stack
- The goal is to get FSD Beta to operate at 36fps for all 8 cameras compared to the current 24 frames which will reduce latency when reacting to a dynamic environment
Inflation & Future Price Reductions
- They do not control so therefore Elon says take w/ grain salt but thinks inflation to decrease by end of 2022
- Carbon, steel, aluminum, etc are trending down in cost which should see impact later in 2022, early 2023
- Processing of lithium is insanely costly
- Elon again encouraging entrepreneurs to enter the lithium business as there are, “software margins”
- “License to print money” -Elon
Bitcoin
- Cryptocurrency is not something Tesla thinks about a lot according to Elon
- Main goal is production and addressing climate change by making sustainable energy & transport a reality
4680s
- Structural pack is a monumental step forward from a physics perspective and is the way to go
- Gained perspective through entering production w/ structural pack Teslas which proved their hypotheses
- Cost improvements are thanks to solving technical issues and scale
- They have saved 4-5kg in mass from the early cast Model Y underbodies since their initial production
- Plan is to reduce mass of castings and to include more parts (and to adapt vehicle to work better with castings)
- Cybertruck will be another big step in this area
- Making progress on 4680 production ramp but continuing to leverage supplier cells (2170s) to ramp Giga Berlin & Texas
- Total production ramp of 4680 packs to 1000 per week by end of the year (preferably earlier)
- Q2 @ Kato fully automated powder conveyance for the dry anode electrode tool there unlocking major improvements in production & yields too
- Production as a result has increased 35% MoM since March and yields throughout factory are already at targets or trending towards them
- Took learnings from Fremont cell & pack lines and built optimized lines in Giga Berlin & Texas
- Cell design was revved to unlock higher performance and manufacturing simplicity
- Lines were fully integrated and insourced additional content
- As a result new challenges for ramping in Giga Berlin & Texas
- Last quarter cell equipment was fully installed at Giga Texas and they have since produced their first commissioning car sets of 4680s cells
- The target for Texas is to begin mass producing 4680 cells in Q3 2022 with the goal of being able to exceed the weekly cell production capacity of the Kato battery plant by end of 2022
- Priority with 4680s initially is simplicity and scale, Tesla was not aiming to include all of the bells & whistles right off the bat
- As manufacturing goals are achieved they plan to layer in new material technologies into their structural packs (and increase range as well)
- Currently in regards to 4680s Tesla’s main focus is to remove low hanging issues that would prevent further production ramp
- Dry electrode anode & cathode are included in the current 4680 process which makes things harder to ramp (yet they continue to achieve success here)
- Once mass production achieved they plan to quickly iterate w/ an increase in energy density and overall performance soon thereafter
- Tesla cell production will continue to compliment production volumes from suppliers
- Fundamental rate limiter for transition to sustainable energy is rate of li-ion battery pack production
  - Not due to scarcity of raw materials, refining lithium in ultra high purity is quite difficult and requires massive amounts of machinery
  - Super difficult to create anode and cathode
  - Elon believes 2/3 of batteries in the future will be iron phosphate, maybe some with manganese
  - Tesla is actively working with suppliers to ramp as quick as possible
- Tesla is taking action by building their own Cathode plant at Giga Texas as well as taking the plunge into lithium refinement
FSD Development Progress & Andrej Departure
- While Andrej Karpathy will be missed (recent departure), Elon remains very bullish on current team of 120 people in software / AI group and believes that they will solve FSD by end of 2022
- No major setbacks or delays in FSD timeline should occur as a result of Andrej’s departure
- Elon believes they will raise FSD price just before they go to wide beta (targeted for end of 2022)
- Value of FSD is extremely high and not well understood by most people, Elon thinks its ridiculously cheap if promises of performance materialize
Semiconductor Supply Chain Constraints
- Tesla procures about 1600 unique pieces of silicon from 43 different companies
- Supply chains are more stable w/ latest generation of chips
- Chips from the analog & mixed signaling space still remain a challenge from a supply chain perspective
- Supply chain line of sight continues to match planned outputs for both factories (no constraints)
- Long term contracts already in place for key battery materials and so there are no concerns about future constraints
- Tesla does not plan to manufacture their own chips however they continue to work with suppliers to ensure future product goals are achieved
- Chip shortage forced Teslas to delete redundant chips and update software accordingly (big positive in hindsight)

Cybertruck
- Deliveries to begin by the middle of 2023
Vehicle Demand
- Vehicle demand not an issue for Tesla for the foreseeable future
- No sizable macro impact on demand
- Difference between value in money and affordability and why you can’t just keep increasing prices
- Elon feels that they have raised prices to “frankly embarrassing levels”
  - Supply chain and inflation are main culprits for price increases
  - Elon is hopeful Tesla can reduce prices soon
- Elon thinks its achievable to produce 40,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022
  - Teslas has already produced 30,000 vehicles per week many times, 40,000 vehicles per week is definitely in reach
  - Plan is to get Giga Berlin & Texas to ramp to 5,000 vehicles per week by end of 2022 and 10,000 vehicles per week by end of 2023
- Elon reaffirms that Tesla does not have a demand problem but instead a production problem

Elon’s Role At Tesla
- If there is only good news Elon won’t plan to join the future earnings calls
- Elon is committed to working at Tesla as long as he can continue to help advance the company
AI
- Elon didn’t want to steal thunder from AI day so he will save the news / updates regarding Dojo & Optimus for then

You can follow Dan Burkland on Twitter at @DBurkland.

Tesla’s LFP Factory in North America Almost Complete — More LFP Vehicles Could Follow

July 1, 2025

By Karan Singh

Not a Tesla App

In a new video posted to X, Tesla is showing the progress of its first Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) cell manufacturing factory in North America. The facility, located in Sparks, Nevada, will be used to produce LFP battery cells for Megapacks and Powerwall.

However, the implications of this new factory extend beyond Tesla Energy. By on-shoring the production of these cost-effective batteries, Tesla is not only securing its energy supply chain but also opening the door to potentially reintroducing LFP-based vehicles in North America.

Nearing completion of our first LFP cell manufacturing factory in North America pic.twitter.com/OLNRWajz4l
— Tesla (@Tesla) June 28, 2025

Megapack First

The immediate beneficiary of the new Nevada LFP facility is Tesla’s Energy division. LFP chemistry is ideal for stationary storage products like Megapack and Powerwall. It offers a very long life cycle, is extremely thermally stable and safe, and is significantly cheaper to produce than nickel-based batteries, partly because it contains no cobalt.

Until now, Tesla has relied on suppliers like CATL in China for these cells. A dedicated, domestic supply will enable Tesla to dramatically ramp up Megapack production to meet North America’s increasing demand for grid-scale energy. On the other hand, Megafactory Shanghai continues to utilize CATL’s LFP batteries and will support the rest of the world.

Tesla first revealed that they were planning to onshore LFP production in North America at the Q1 2025 Earnings Call, which will help them avoid costs, innovate in new technology, and insulate themselves from geopolitical supply chain risks.

A Potential Return for LFP Vehicles?

Another exciting application for Tesla is what this new factory means for Tesla’s budget-oriented lineup. For years, Tesla has been constrained in its ability to offer LFP-based vehicles in North America. While LFP packs are used in other markets for specific standard-range RWD vehicles, tariffs on important Chinese cells made it difficult to import these cells for use in North America.

With a domestic supply of LFP cells produced in Nevada, this tariff-related barrier will be mostly eliminated, pending the sourcing of lithium from a North American site. This is likely to lead to the reintroduction of LFP-based vehicles to the North American market, possibly in late 2026 or 2027.

An American-made LFP pack could lead to a more affordable base Model 3 or Model Y, or potentially help Tesla cut costs on the next-generation Affordable Model even further. This helps to give customers a lower-cost entry point without sacrificing a lot of range, and with the added benefit of being able to regularly charge to 100%.

Mega Nevada

With Mega Nevada now progressing well, Tesla is in an excellent position to continue iterating on its vertical integration and scaling Megapack and Powerwall—two of Tesla’s fastest-growing businesses—further. There are tons of benefits for consumers in the future as Tesla continues down this path, with more affordable Powerwalls for the home, cheaper electricity prices thanks to grid-forming Megapacks, and cheaper LFP vehicles.

Tesla Grok App: First Look at Its Interface and Features

July 1, 2025

By Karan Singh

@greentheonly on X

The next major upgrade for Tesla’s in-car experience is pretty much already here - just hiding beneath the surface, awaiting the flick of a switch. According to new details uncovered by Tesla hacker Greentheonly, a fully functional version of the Grok conversational AI assistant is already present in recent firmware builds, just waiting for Tesla to activate it.

The feature, which is currently behind a server-side switch, could be enabled at any time by Tesla for vehicles running update 2025.20 and newer. The findings provide a better picture of what we already learned from Green’s breakdown on Grok last month.

Grok’s Requirements

@greentheonly on X

According to what Green determined from the latest software builds, the foundation for Grok was laid with update 2025.14, with more abilities and functionality added in 2025.20 to flesh it out. He also determined exactly which vehicles will be receiving Grok.

In terms of hardware, any vehicle with a Ryzen-based infotainment computer will receive Grok. This means that vehicles with the older Intel Atom processor will not be supported, at least initially. The underlying Autopilot hardware is not a factor, as Grok’s processing is not done in-vehicle.

Grok will also require premium connectivity or a Wi-Fi connection for the vehicle. At this point, we’re not sure whether Grok in your Tesla will also require you to sign up for SuperGrok, X Premium, or X Premium+, but Tesla is requiring you to sign into your Grok account. It’s just not clear whether the free version of Grok will work, or if you’ll need the premium version.

Grok User Experience

@greentheonly on X

Green also revealed the user interface for Grok for the first time. You’ll find many of the same features from the Grok app, but surprisingly, it looks like it’ll have a dark UI, even if you’re using light mode in your vehicle.

It appears that there will be a Grok app, likely for settings. However, Grok will largely operate in a modal, similar to voice commands, which are displayed near the bottom left corner of the screen.

There’s an on-screen microphone button, as well as drop-down menus for the voice and type of assistant you’d like to use.

Similar to the Grok app currently on mobile devices, you’ll be able to select from a set of voices and then define their personality. The available voices for now are the standard Ara (Upbeat Female), Rex (Calm Male), and Gork (Lazy Male).

There’s also a settings button, which, when expanded, allows you to enable or disable NSFW mode (including swearing and adult topics), as well as a Kids Mode, which will tone Grok down to be suitable for when kids are in the car.

@greentheonly on X

How Grok Will Work (Button / Wake Word)

Users will be able to activate Grok by pressing a button, likely the same one that activates voice commands today. Grok will then remain enabled for the duration of your conversation, allowing you to go back and forth, asking and answering questions. To end your conversation, you’ll press the mic button again.

While it doesn’t appear to use a wake word yet, Green says that some code refers to a wake word, so it’s possible that this could be an option Tesla plans to activate in the future.

Replacing Voice Commands

The most significant implication of Grok’s future integration is in its potential to fully replace the existing and relatively rigid voice command system. Green notes that internally, this feature is part of the car assist module, and that eventually, the plan is for Grok to take over car control functions.

Unlike the current system, which requires specific phrases, a true conversational AI like Grok can understand natural language. This will enable more intuitive requests, completely changing how drivers interact with their car.

Language Support

@Greentheonly/X

Grok will also launch with multi-language support, similar to its current abilities in the Grok app. Green says that it already appears to have support for English and Chinese and one or two other languages.

Release Date

Grok appears ready to go from a vehicle standpoint, but Green wasn’t able to actually test it out. While development appears to be nearly complete in the vehicle, Tesla and xAI may still be working on some server-side changes to better integrate with the vehicle. If they plan for Grok to replace voice commands on day one, then it’ll need to be trained and be able to execute a variety of vehicle commands.

It’s possible Tesla is actively testing Grok or adding server-side changes to replace voice commands. However, it looks like vehicle development is nearly complete and Grok could launch as soon as the next major Tesla update, which is expected to be update 2025.24.