It’s now been over a year since Elon Musk started saying Full Self Driving (FSD) is coming “next month.” If you are wondering what’s taking so long maybe check out this recent paper “Why AI is Harder Than We Think” by Melanie Mitchell. She is the Davis Professor of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute, and Professor of Computer Science (currently on leave) at Portland State University. Her research focuses on conceptual abstraction, analogy-making, and visual recognition in artificial intelligence systems. Given that Tesla FSD relies on visual AI it would seem that she may be qualified to explain the delay in FSD rollout. Her paper does not mention Tesla or FSD at all, but I think her observations apply to the current status of FSD.
Mitchell points to four classic fallacies in the predictions made by AI developers:
1. Narrow intelligence is on a continuum with general intelligence
It’s easy to assume that if you make some incremental progress in an AI problem that it’s just a matter of time before you solve the whole thing. I.e. just a few more months to FSD. But Mitchell says that’s like claiming that the first monkey that climbed a tree was making progress towards landing on the moon. Ain’t gonna happen. Plus there’s this unexpected obstacle in the assumed continuum of AI progress. “The problem of common sense,” she says, which humans have subconsciously but AI systems lack completely. Nobody knows how to code for common sense, which comes in handy when you’re driving a car.
2. Easy things are easy and hard things are hard
In fact easy things for us are hard for computers. She quotes Hans Moravec the computer scientist who came up with one of the first algorithms for computer vision. He once wrote, “It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, yet difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility.” Unfortunately FSD is all about perception and mobility. We simply don’t appreciate the complexity of our own thought processes and we overestimate how easy it is to give these abilities to a computer. Mitchell says Moravec put it this way: “Encoded in the large, highly evolved sensory and motor portions of the human brain is a billion years of experience about the nature of the world and how to survive in it.” FSD doesn’t have any of this. Mitchell then quotes the grandfather of AI Marvin Minsky who said, “In general, we’re least aware of what our minds do best.”
3. The lure of wishful mnemonics or metaphors
The computational technique underlying FSD is a neural network, a metaphor loosely inspired by the brain, but with major differences. Mitchell says, “Machine learning or deep learning methods do not really resemble learning in humans (or in non-human animals). Indeed, if a machine has learned something in the human sense of learn, we would expect that it would be able use what it has learned in different contexts. However, it turns out that this is often not the case.” Computer scientist Drew McDermott first used the term “wishful mnemonics” in 1976, pointing out that by labeling some computer code “Full Self Driving,” for instance, we are imbuing it with the “wish” that it will actually do what it says. He said a better idea would be to label it “G0034” and then see if the programmers can convince themselves or anyone else that G0034 implements some part of self driving. We all seem to be caught in a sort of wishful FSD state at the moment. But wishing it won’t make it happen.
4. Intelligence is all in the brain
This fallacy assumes intelligence is disembodied and lives only in the brain, the so called “information processing model of mind.” It’s the old idea that if you had enough computing power you could “upload” a mind into a machine. But a growing number of cognitive scientists now believe in a sort of “embodied cognition.” Mitchell says, “Nothing in our knowledge of psychology or neuroscience supports the possibility that “pure rationality” is separable from the emotions and cultural biases that shape our cognition and our objectives. Instead, what we’ve learned from research in embodied cognition is that human intelligence seems to be a strongly integrated system with closely interconnected attributes, including emotions, desires, a strong sense of selfhood and autonomy, and a common sense understanding of the world. It’s not at all clear that these attributes can be separated.” While one could argue that Tesla’s FSD also embodies the car via sensors and cameras it may take more than a few weeks before Tesla’s programmers pull off this trick that took Nature a billion years to integrate.
Ultimately Mitchell uses these four fallacies to explain the cyclic nature of AI research since its inception in the 1970s. It tends to blossom in Spring time with magnificent overconfident predictions at first, but then when the scale of the challenge is realized, a sort of AI Winter descends and progress can stall for up to a decade.
Obviously we all want Tesla to be successful and pull off Full Self Driving next week, next month, or even next year. And Elon Musk has pulled a rabbit out of a hat more than once. Who can forget when those two returning Falcon Heavy booster rockets landed perfectly and simultaneously in 2018? So fingers crossed. But if you’re ever craving an explanation for why FSD is taking so long devote 20 minutes to Melanie Mitchell’s paper.
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The latest Tesla Model 3, the fastest yet, is poised to make a significant impact on Tesla's lineup. Speculation suggests the updated Performance Model 3, potentially named "Ludicrous," could be unveiled soon—possibly on April 20. This would, of course, be on 420, aligning with Elon Musk's fondness for the date, which falls 69 days before his birthday—nice.
Revamped Performance and Engineering
"Welcome to the Most Powerful Model 3 Ever," announces the Great Britain Model 3 configurator source code teaser, setting the stage for an electric sedan that surpasses its predecessors in every metric. The heart of the new Model 3 Performance lies in its all-new high-performance drive units, rumored to deliver a combined output of over 500 horsepower. This power upgrade is not just about higher numbers but also about how it translates to the asphalt.
TONS of new Model 3 Performance details were revealed in the Great Britain Model 3 configurator source code. “Welcome to the Most Powerful Model 3 Ever”
All-New Adaptive Suspension Adaptive damping powered by in-house software gives you enhanced body control, without sacrificing… pic.twitter.com/cem4TDV80w
Tesla has reengineered the vehicle with an all-new adaptive suspension system. This system, powered by bespoke in-house software, ensures enhanced body control, maintaining comfort without sacrificing performance. The result is a vehicle that can handle daily commuting as smoothly as it navigates tight corners on a race track.
Advanced Design and Aerodynamics
The Model 3 Performance features redesigned front and rear fascias and a rear diffuser that enhances visual appeal and improves high-speed stability. A carbon fiber spoiler adds to the aerodynamic efficiency while asserting the car’s sporty aesthetics.
One of the standout features of the new model is the Forged Performance wheels. These lightweight, staggered wheels are not just about style; they enhance the vehicle’s turn-in response, improve predictability, and increase traction out of corners, all while optimizing aerodynamics.
Where Comfort Meets Performance
Inside, the Tesla Model 3 Performance introduces a completely revamped interior. The all-new seat design includes enhanced side and cushion bolsters to hold occupants securely in place, which is crucial during high-speed maneuvers. Ventilation is built into the seats to keep the driver and passengers cool and comfortable, reflecting a thoughtful balance between performance and luxury. The cabin's aesthetic is elevated with lightweight carbon fiber décor and a refined weave pattern unique to the Model 3 Performance.
Performance Interior (New Model 3 Performance)
All-new seat design with enhanced side and cushion bolsters hold you in place, while ventilation keeps you cool. The lightweight carbon fibre décor and refined weave pattern is unique to Model 3 Performance. pic.twitter.com/1R0UhERmHB
A significant highlight is the Track Mode V3, an innovative feature that allows drivers to tailor the handling balance, stability controls, and regenerative braking to their preferences. This mode integrates a performance-optimized powertrain with adaptive suspension controls, creating a driving experience that is not only responsive but also enjoyable.
The unveiling of the Model 3 Performance is imminent, as indicated by its addition to the configurator source code. There is speculation about a media embargo lifting on the 23rd, possibly coinciding with Tesla’s earnings day, which could provide further details or even see the official launch. My money is on 4/20, which will give a weekend for all influencers who got an early look to ramp up the views and bring that stock (down 40% year to date) some time to rebound before the earnings call.
Tesla's latest V12 user interface will change the look and feel of some of the vehicle’s operations. This new interface, announced on X, is already partially available on the Cybertruck but will now be rolled out to the Model 3 and Model Y, equipped with AMD Ryzen processors according to Tesla. However, the new Model S and Model X will likely receive it as well, although possibly not at the same time. It integrates several new features and aesthetics that set new standards in vehicle interface design.
The new interface will become available in Tesla update 2024.14, which started rolling out to employees yesterday.
New Parked Vehicle Visualization
A standout feature of the v12 UI update, not to be confused with FSD v12, is the centralized vehicle visualization, which dominates the display while parked (video below). This design choice enhances visual appeal and improves functionality by placing critical vehicle performance metrics, and status updates front and center. Similar to the layout in the Cybertruck, this feature provides drivers with a clear and immediate view of their vehicle's status and shows off the gorgeous 3D model.
V12 Ansicht (Frühlingsupdate) 👉Kein Autopilot, EAP, FSD aktiv. 👉Bremslichter werden angezeigt. 👉Blinken wird angezeigt. 👉Geile Darstellung ❤️Danke liebes Tesla Team pic.twitter.com/lmzTjKIq1x
There’s a new media player that’s larger and easier to use. By increasing the size of the media player, Tesla is now able to fit additional options that were hidden before, such as EQ and audio settings, the search icon and shuffle and repeat options.
The new media player appears while the vehicle is parked, driving or while the visualizations are in full-screen mode.
The media player is available on the Model 3 and Model Y and according to Tesla it’ll be limited to vehicles with the Ryzen-based infotainment center.
Tesla adds a new media player in update 2024.14
Improved Navigation
The navigation system will see several improvements. You’ll now see a little trip progress bar that lets you visually see how far along you are on your route.
If your vehicle has a rear screen, as in the new Model 3, the redesigned Model S or Model X, then trip information such as ETA will also be displayed on the rear screen.
Tesla already has the ability to update your route if a faster route becomes available. You can change some of these settings under Controls > Navigate. However, now the vehicle will show you if a faster route becomes available and gives you a chance to cancel the updated route if needed.
Expanded Autopilot Visualizations
Tesla is now bringing its full-screen visualizations outside of North America. However, there will be some improvements as well. In addition to being able to have the visualizations go full screen, there will now be a small map displayed in the corner as well.
That’s one of the issues with the full-screen FSD visualizations right now. If you make them full-screen, you lose your navigation map completely and only have the next turn available.
This will be the first time full-screen visualizations are available outside North America. It’s not clear whether all the FSD visualizations will be available such as traffic lights, curbs and more will be displayed, but Tesla has slowly been adding additional visualizations for non-FSD users, so there’s a chance that this feature will finally display all FSD visualizations to users outside of North America.
It’s not immediately clear whether this feature will require Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) or FSD.
Update: The full-screen visualizations do not require FSD or EAP, but unfortunately the visualizations displayed are still the same ones as in previous updates, so it won’t display the surrounding environment and curbs.
Full-Screen Browser Support
With this update, Tesla will finally let you manually make the browser full-screen. While this will make Tesla’s Theater apps a little redundant since they just loaded the website of the selected streaming service, you’ll now be able to stream any video service full screen, as long as the service supports Tesla’s browser.
As expected, the full-screen button will only be available while the vehicle is parked.
Checking Compatibility
Owners can verify their vehicle’s compatibility with the new full-screen visualizations while parked and driving by navigating to Controls > Software > Additional Vehicle Info on their Tesla’s touchscreen. This update is tailored for Tesla vehicles equipped with the AMD Ryzen processor.
TeslaFi logs your drives and charging sessions, letting you keep a log of your vehice's activity. We highly recommend checking them out if you use your car for business trips and would like to keep track of reimbursements, if you like to see how much you spend on charging or if you just love statistics. Visit their site and see everything they have to offer!
Tesla Android Project enables you to run Android apps in your Tesla. The platform is Open Source and you can deploy it on your own Raspberry Pi 4. Consider supporting the initiative by donating or purchasing the Compute Module 4 Bundle that delivers the best experience. Get $20 off by using the code: NotATeslaApp
The official Tesla app only notifies you if your car is broken into. By installing Sentry Pro on your phone, you will be notified for all Sentry Mode events. Stay connected and avoid potential surprises by receiving notifications. Stop constantly checking the cameras to ensure safety. Check only when necessary, save battery and get peace of mind. Get a 7 day free trial here!
Stay organized, connected, and stylish with Cyberbackpack — the #1 backpack, luggage & travel accessories for Tesla owners. We highly recommend checking them out if you commute or travel and would like a backpack or luggage that is sleek, secure and durable. View their products page and see everything they have to offer!
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