In response to the many questions the Tesla AI team receives daily, they’ve finally caved in and shared their FSD release roadmap. Release Roadmap. This roadmap outlines the upcoming feature improvements and plans for FSD in the short term, up to about Q1 2025.
We expect this roadmap to be more accurate than some of the timelines we’ve heard from Elon in the past for FSD releases, as it's something that the entire team has presumably had some input in.
Let’s take a look at what we’ve got coming up soon!
September 2024
September looks to be full of improvements for FSD V12.5, and some of them are quite exciting. First off Tesla outlines the improvements that are available with FSD v12.5.2, which recently started going out to HW3 and HW4 vehicles.
FSD 12.5.2 & Reduced Interventions - Tesla says that FSD 12.5.2 brings a 3x improvement between necessary interventions. That will be a great improvement, especially as users on FSD 12.5.1.5 have noted several major issues with the path planner, including braking on green lights and path-planning to the opposite side of traffic.
Larger FSD Model for HW3 - Another big September item is that v12.5.2 is confirmed to be a unified FSD model. The same AI model that powers FSD 12.5 on AI4 is now being shared with the less powerful hardware 3. HW3 was previously running a smaller FSD model that was less intensive, although we were told they would soon run the same model.
This is definitely great news, as v12.5.1 has a different model for HW3 and AI4. We expect HW3 to see a performance boost in capabilities with the newer model. Tesla releasing a unified model shows their commitment to continue developing and supporting older hardware, so we’re happy to see this. If you’re not sure which FSD hardware you have, you can check here.
Actually Smart Summon - The improved Summon was released to early access testers already, (including on HW3), but it’s also on the list for September for a wider release. The feature isn’t available on FSD v12.5.2, but it is on v12.5.3.
Cybertruck Autopark - The Cybertruck which recently received High-Fidelity Park Assist, will be receiving AutoPark this weekend. Later this month Tesla says it will also receive full FSD support. Some Cybertruck owners have been waiting close to a year waiting for FSD capabilities, but with four-wheel steering, steer-by-wire, and cameras in slightly different locations, it’s not surprising it’s taken longer to implement. The Cybertruck is Tesla’s only vehicle with a front bumper camera, so it’ll be interesting to see if Tesla will leverage this camera for FSD in addition to the vehicle’s other 8 cameras.
Vision-Monitoring With Sunglasses - One of Tesla’s latest features, eye tracking, replaces the previous steering wheel torque detection. Tesla confirms that they’ll add support for vision monitoring with sunglasses in September. This feature isn’t available in FSD 12.5.3, so it could be a part of FSD 12.5.4 or FSD 12.6. Newer Tesla vehicles feature infra-red lights near the cabin camera which allows the camera to see at night. It’s not clear whether Tesla will leverage IR lights to help see-through sunglasses or what kind of sunglasses will be allowed.
End-to-end on the Highway - Tesla says they’ll also support end-to-end FSD for highway driving, which should be a huge improvement – as highways are still running the FSD v11 stack. End-to-end allows for AI to control the vehicle’s output like acceleration and steering instead of just input from cameras. When E2E was implemented for city-driving it was a huge boost, and we expect to see similar improvements for highway driving.
End-to-end for highway driving will only be included on the latest FSD versions for now, but at some point we expect the same end-to-end highway support to trickle down to regular Autopilot highway use, even outside of North America. The vehicle may not be more capable, but what it’s allowed to do in other regions will be smoother.
October 2024
Tesla AI seems to be focusing on Unpark, Park, and Reverse in FSD for October 2024. This appears to have been a milestone for a while now which we’re associating with Tesla’s previous comments on Park Seek and Banish Autopark. These two features allow the vehicle to drive around a parking lot by itself, find a parking spot, and finally park itself. These functions are necessary for Robotaxi to function, and with the Robotaxi event taking place in October, it’s a good fit that these features are also coming along for the ride — at least in an internal beta the Robotaxi will be running.
Unpark - Tesla mentions “unpark,” which sounds very much like Actually Smart Summon — essentially having the vehicle remove itself from a parking spot and start driving. These capabilities appear to be coming to FSD. You'll be able to start FSD from a parked position and the vehicle will back up and exit the parking spot before it starts driving to your destination.
Park - “Park,” could see some improvements over what is available today. Right now Tesla’s new AutoPark feature is only capable of backing a vehicle into a parking spot, which actually isn’t allowed in some areas. With improvements to Park, we could see the ability for the vehicle to go nose-in into parking spots or maybe support angled parking spaces.
Parking in FSD is a feature we’ve also been waiting for. Eventually, the car should be able to navigate to a parking lot, cruise around until it finds a parking stall, and then AutoPark should be initiated. Musk said this was coming to FSD back in May, so it seems like we may finally be close. You could see the pieces coming together where Actually Smart Summon can now traverse parking lots and Autopark can park itself. It’s just a matter of piecing these together.
Banish AutoPark is expected to be an upgrade to the current Autopark feature – where the vehicle drops you off near the entrance to your destination and then finds a parking stall autonomously, and parks itself entirely without user intervention. This is one feature we’re super excited about and is pretty much the opposite of Actually Smart Summon.
Reverse in FSD - Reversing capability for FSD will be huge. It’ll allow the vehicle to perform much more complex turns and even back up when it has gone too far into an intersection. Currently, FSD cannot shift into reverse, but users have already noticed that the path planner is capable of thinking about switching to reverse but is unable to. Reverse may already be part of the FSD model, but Tesla has a strict rule that doesn’t allow the vehicle to be put into reverse.
The ability for the vehicle to go in reverse will be critical to get the vehicle moving in and out of parking lots, as well as making tight three-point turns, so we’re excited to see what this will enable FSD to do.
FSD V13 - The final item Tesla lists for FSD in October is FSD v13. Tesla says v13 will bring a 6x improvement in miles between necessary interventions. That’s a huge leap, but we’ve heard similar numbers in the past that didn’t come to fruition, so we’ll have to wait and see. Tesla doesn’t release a major FSD version without large architectural improvements, so we do expect major improvements in capabilities or interventions — or both.
Q1 2025 - FSD Outside of North America
To go along with all the FSD improvements, Tesla also announced its FSD expansion plans and timelines. Tesla specifically outlined that they expect to launch FSD in Europe and China in Q1 of 2025. However, Tesla did say that this is pending regulatory approval. If Tesla has FSD ready for these markets, they should be able to launch at least portions of it in some countries.
This is definitely a slip from Tesla’s original release plan of EOY 2024 for FSD in Europe and China, but it's still a good sign to see the light at the end of the tunnel. We recently found out that the FSD test for China was put on hold, which could explain some of the delays.
Q2 2025 - FSD for Right Hand Drive
This time frame seems a bit more flexible following a comment from Elon on the post, but it seems that right-hand drive markets will take a bit longer than the team initially expected. Musk followed up saying that RHD markets will arrive in late Q1/Q2, pending approval.
The Tesla AI team has been hard at work getting FSD prepared for RHD markets, while other parts of Tesla have been working closely with national and regional governments to get approval for FSD.
Overall, this roadmap looks fantastic, and we’re happy to see Tesla AI providing this information to reduce speculation and help provide real timelines to Tesla owners. This is a super-packed release roadmap, and all the upcoming features and updates are going to be coming in back-to-back until the end of this year, with more around the corner next year!
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It's only been a few days since Tesla officially announced the Model Y refresh, but we’re already finding out more. While deliveries won’t begin for at least another three months, there are plenty of things to get excited about.
We covered the Model Y Refresh in detail, but it is always worth it to take a moment and appreciate all the little things Tesla has included in this version of the Model Y.
Turn Signal Stalk & Steering Wheel
Not a Tesla App
First up is the return of the signal stalk. The Cybertruck and Model 3 Refresh both shipped without a signal stalk. Instead, the signals, as well as the wiper control, were located on the steering wheel.
For the Model 3, this was met with considerable pushback, given that it was a vehicle intended for the mass market rather than enthusiasts. While it's possible to get 3rd-party stalks for the Model 3 now, Tesla has clearly taken consumer sentiment to mind when refreshing the world’s best-selling vehicle.
With the Model Y Refresh, there’s a single turn signal stalk on the left side. Based on the photos, it appears that this may be a simpler stalk than we’ve seen in the past, as it doesn’t appear to have a button at the end. Given the headlights button on the steering wheel, it’s unlikely to move forward/back for high beams as well.
The steering wheel itself is very similar to the new Model 3 but with reduced buttons, thanks to the stalk. On the left side of the steering wheel you have buttons for the Wipers and High Beams. While on the right, it looks like there will be a button for Voice Commands (soon to be the smart assistant) and the rear/front camera.
There is no right stalk, so Autopilot and shift functionality is the same as the new Model 3, which means that you’ll be using the right scroll wheel and the screen for that functionality instead.
Rear Power Reclining Seats
The new Model Y is definitely aimed at families and those with lots of stuff to move. Tesla has put some good thought into this - and has added power reclining seating, which folds flat.
At the press of a button from the trunk or with a tap on either the front screen, the rear seats can be folded flat or raised up to their normal position. That’s definitely a helpful feature, especially if you’re trying to get something big into the trunk of your vehicle - and you need to drop the seats.
Now, a single-button press does the trick, which is super convenient. The ability to fold the seats flat is also new. In the previous Model Y, the seats folded mostly flat - and they’d squish down further if you put something heavy on them, but that could potentially damage the seats.
Rear Trunk / Lift Gate
@niccruzpatane
The vehicle’s lift gate has also received some upgrades. Instead of being a “single” piece, there’s now a seam between the sides and the tail of the trunk piece. This will likely make repairs much cheaper for light rear-end accidents or other light damage. Owners can opt to replace just the trim part of the trunk instead of having to replace the entire life gate.
The rear glass has also been updated. Instead of featuring a curved edge at the bottom, it’s now much more rectangular. This appears to be a cosmetic change or tied to the new seam location.
New Speaker Placement and Double Stitching
Not a Tesla App
The new Model Y includes new speaker placements on the doors. The speakers on the door have been moved up next to the door handle. Their integration feels a lot smoother, and they’re fitted with a metal grill instead of a plastic one.
The interior also features a lot more double stitching when compared to the new Model 3. You can see this on the dash, where this is a single piece on the Model 3. While it likely adds a little bit to the cost, it makes the vehicle look a lot more premium.
The ambient lighting is also slightly different, now only reaching half the length of the door — on the front and rear doors. However, the design is sleek and fits in nicely.
Not a Tesla App
To Tow, or Not to Tow
We initially reported that the Model Y Refresh doesn’t have a tow hitch. We still stand by this point, but others have pointed out that the openable slot for the tow hitch still seems to be present.
Tesla doesn’t show the tow hitch as an option on any of the Asia Pacific sites right now - so it seems that, at the very least, the Launch Edition will not include a tow hitch. It also doesn’t show up as a feature, and the maximum tow weight is not listed as a vehicle specification.
We’re hoping that this is either an oversight or that Tesla intends to bring the tow hitch to the market as a Tesla Store retrofit and then offer it for new vehicles sometime in the future. Towing is very popular on the Model Y, but many people also use the hitch for bike racks and luggage carriers - owing to the versatility of the Y as a do-everything vehicle.
New Wheels
Alongside all the fun new features - the Model Y also comes with a new set of 20” Helix 2.0 wheels. One interesting item of note is that there is no aero cover included with these wheels, at least for now. They’re probably already quite efficient and likely wouldn’t benefit too much from aero covers like the current generation Model Y’s wheels.
This likely won’t be the only wheel option - but it is the standard for the Launch Series. We’ll likely see a 21” performance wheel option once the Performance variant arrives, as well as a cheaper 19” wheel variant with aero covers.
However, the new Helix 2.0’s are some of Tesla’s best-looking wheels, in our opinion, so there is that too. 20” wheels are a good balance in terms of looking good and providing enough rubber to dampen sounds, vibrations, and bumps. Tesla also claims to have improved handling performance and comfort, so these new wheels likely contribute to the overall experience.
If you’ve managed to pick up on something we’ve overlooked for all the small stuff, let us know on social media or here on the forums.
Tesla’s US Sales were recently released in the Kelly Blue Book, which provides insight into vehicle sales in the domestic United States. It doesn’t cover Canada or any other international markets but provides a lot of data to analyze.
We’re going to look at Tesla’s sales here, analyze some trends, and make some observations.
Tesla Sales in the U.S.
We’re specifically looking at EV sales in the US - so let’s lay out how each of Tesla’s vehicles did. The table below shows the relative rank of the vehicle compared to all EVs available in the US market, the 2024 and 2023 sales figures, as well as the percentage change year over year.
Vehicle
Rank
2024 Sales
2023 Sales
YoY Change
Model Y
1
372,613
398,782
-6.6%
Model 3
2
189,903
230,015
-17.4%
Cybertruck
5
38,965
--
--
Model X
15
19,855
24,767
-19.8%
Model S
24
12,426
18,052
-31.2%
Lower Sales In U.S. Only
Overall, Tesla has seen a net shrink in the number of vehicles sold in the United States. This makes sense, especially as they reported similar findings in their 2024 Production and Delivery Numbers just recently. Surprisingly, the Model Y saw the lowest drop, even with the upcoming release of the refresh, while the Model 3 and Model X were hit pretty hard.
The worst of the bunch is the Model S, at an astounding -31.2% year-over-year change - a difference of nearly 6,000 vehicles. While that doesn’t seem like much, that’s at minimum $450M in sales revenue ($75,000 starting price x 6,000). The Model 3, on the other hand, makes that seem like a drop in the hat, with its difference of nearly 40,000 vehicles - costing Tesla a potential revenue of $1,760,000,000 - $1.76B. That’s a lot of 0’s, assuming everyone bought a Long Range RWD variant.
Sales Up In Other Regions
What’s interesting is that why Tesla’s sales are drastically lower in the US in 2024, they remain practically unchanged at the global level, meaning that other regions were actually up, year-over-year. In 2024 Tesla delivered 1.79 million vehicles globally, compared to 1.81 million in 2023.
Cybertruck
Overall, these lower sales in the United States have had a fairly significant impact on the company - but on the flip side, sales of the Cybertruck are fantastic news for Tesla. The Cybertruck is the 5th best-selling EV in the U.S. In fact, it sold better than the R1T and the Ford F-150 Lightning - which is the most “normal” EV truck anyone could buy. It is also the best-selling vehicle at or above the $100,000 USD price mark - a feat that isn’t easily achieved, especially as people have been more reticent to spend in difficult economic times.
The Model S and Model X
Ok, we’ll say it upfront. The Model S and Model X sales are… disappointing. The Model X was out-sold by the Rivian R1S by 35% (26,934 vehicles vs 19,855) - which came as a surprise.
While the R1S is a fantastic vehicle, the Model X has long been Tesla’s halo vehicle - the gullwing doors, sharp lines, and sportscar-like performance make a statement no matter where you go. These vehicles compete in a similar market, but the R1S has a distinct advantage in being able to seat more people and store more luggage, which is likely the same reason the Kia EV9 also outsold the Model X.
When we compared the Model X and R1S, we found them both to be amazing vehicles - but the Model X’s big advantage was the versatility of the gullwing doors and the overall quality of software and tech compared to Rivian’s offerings.
Time for a Refresh
All in all, both Model S and Model X desperately need a refresh. Tesla said its “other models” in the 2024 production and sales numbers added up to 85,133. These are global sales and account for the Semi, Cybertruck, Model S and Model X. However, if we add up the U.S. sales figures for the Cybertruck, Model S and Model X, the total comes to 71,246. That means that nearly all “Other models” sales were sold in the United States, leaving only about 14,000 of these vehicles being sold in other markets.
The remaining difference mostly went to Canada - simply because Tesla doesn’t offer an RHD variant of either vehicle anymore. Buyers in other markets have to purchase LHD vehicles - which can make things as simple as going through a drive-through or parking stall an awkward experience with a passenger in the front seat.
Refreshing both vehicles is going to be something Tesla will have to do sooner or later - they’re starting to get dated pretty quickly, and people like to see new changes to their vehicles. This is probably the prime time to do so - with the Cybertruck’s new 800V High Voltage and Low Voltage Architecture enabling both faster charging as well as Steer-By-Wire - enabling Tesla to simply install the steering wheel where required, rather than needing to engineer a different variant of the vehicle.
While we’ve heard rumors of a minor refresh with ambient lighting and a bumper camera, this hasn’t actually materialized in the year since we heard it. We haven’t even seen any additional vehicles or engineering variants for either vehicle.
While we’re at it, let’s look closely at the Model S Plaid. Once upon a time, the S Plaid was the king of the track. It was pretty much an uncontested ruler, but today, that’s changed. The Model S Plaid - even with the Track Pack equipped, isn’t the king anymore. That title has been ceded to vehicles with newer technological advances that take their flagship sportscars' improvements seriously. After all, why would you buy the second or third fastest car when you can afford the absolute fastest?
We’re hoping Tesla puts the pedal to the metal here and brings forward a full refresh of both the Model X and Model S - one that cements them as part of Tesla’s flagship lineup of vehicles.
The Political Angle
Kelley Blue Book
While Elon’s involvement in politics isn’t something that is surprising - it does appear it has played a role in sales in the U.S. Even the Model 3 saw a sharp decline in sales, even after a recent refresh that provides a much better vehicle. The new Model 3 is a world above the Ford Mach-E, Ioniq5, and others, but somehow, those vehicles saw year-over-year sale improvements of 25%+ while the Model 3 was down 17%.
EVs have increased - but Tesla sales have seen a fairly sharp and drastic drop in 2024 - with the start of Elon taking his political stances. We don’t have a particular opinion on Elon’s politics - after all, to each their own - however, it is clear that he has isolated much of the left-wing political community in the United States - those who used to be Tesla’s staunchest supporters in the interest of an electric tomorrow.
Tesla Isn’t Going Anywhere
While Tesla sales may be down in the U.S. in 2024, we don’t expect this trend to continue long-term. This is a short-term issue in one region. Global sales remain high, where people aren’t as concerned with Elon’s political involvement. We also expect price and software to eventually win and sales will rebound in the U.S. during 2025.
We’re hoping that 2025 sees a more nuanced Elon who returns to bringing us awesome news about FSD, amazing advances in human spaceflight, and spectacularly wholesome news of healing paraplegia.
The good news is that sales outside of the U.S. don’t appear to have been affected. No matter how it turns out, we still know that Tesla and Elon both are going to be bringing some absolutely insane new engineering - with the next-gen model arriving sometime in 2025, Optimus beginning to take its first steps, and Starship landing on those tiny little chopsticks.
