Tesla had an earnings call on Wednesday, January 26th, 2022. Elon Musk and Tesla had a lot to say.
The paint shop at Giga Texas
Tesla had a record-setting year in 2021, and they expect to increase production and sales by 50% in 2022. By intelligently designing their manufacturing process, they’ve managed to achieve a fourteen percent profit margin.
Elon Musk mentioned during the call that even though they produced a record number of cars and sales, in 2021, they were constrained by the chip shortage. They could have produced more cars if they’d had more chips. Musk commented that the chip shortage would probably be alleviated by the end of 2022 because of new chip factories scheduled to come online this year. Once the chip shortage is alleviated, the limiting factor for Tesla will be the availability of batteries.
Musk said that they produced this record-setting number of cars with just two factories, Giga-Shanghai and the Fremont factory. These factories could produce more cars this year, but the focus of Tesla will be on ramping up mass production at the Giga-Texas and the Giga-Berlin factories. It will help make deliveries more efficient if cars destined for Europe can be made in Europe instead of Shanghai and if cars for the eastern US can be made in Texas instead of California.
Over the course of time, Musk predicted that eventually, FSD would be Tesla’s most profitable product. He also predicted that FSD would be finished this calendar year. On the other hand, Musk also said, during another part of the meeting, that the Tesla robot, Optimus, would be their most profitable product.
Speaking about Optimus, the robot, Musk said that Tesla would be the first customer for the robot. They’d be used in the factory. Frankly, I don’t think Tesla employees have much to worry about with respect to robots taking over their jobs.
The reason I say this is that the AI that listens to my voice commands in my Tesla doesn’t understand most of what I say to it. You might say, “Henry, that’s your fault because you didn’t memorize the list of approved voice commands. But because Optimus is shaped like a human being, we’re going to expect more intelligence than we expect from our cars. But there’s no actual reason that a car should be any less intelligent than a humanoid robot. In any case, I don’t expect that factory workers need to worry about being replaced by humanoid robots any time soon.
Musk did make an interesting comment during the earnings call when talking about Optimus replacing human labor. It sounded like an afterthought rather than a part of his prepared remarks. He commented on the fact that there’s a labor shortage and that robots could take up the slack to keep the economy going. He also said that he didn’t know what the economy would look like once robots took over. I don’t know, either.
Getting back to FSD, Musk is making FSD quite expensive. At the moment, it costs twelve thousand dollars. Fortunately, you don’t need it. Autopilot is included with each Tesla, and Autopilot has all the safety features.
Musk said that he believes FSD will be safer than a human driver by the end of this calendar year. I hope he’s right. Right now, FSD doesn’t slow down properly for sharp curves or corners. It also doesn’t respond properly to situations where there’s construction and traffic is responding to flaggers alternating traffic into one lane. You have to take over manually in that situation. And FSD doesn’t notice those pesky No Right Turn on Red signs. So it tries to turn right on red signals at intersections where that’s not legal.
Tesla is not planning on ramping up any new vehicles in 2022. They’re getting ready to ramp up the Cybertruck and the Semi, but they’re not going to actually do it until after the chip shortage is over and the battery shortage is over.
4680 battery cells are going to start being placed in Model Ys coming from the Giga-Texas factory. Once the 4680s ramp up, they’ll be moved into cars in the other factories along with the structural battery packs.
That structural battery pack will require batteries that last as long as the car, and Teslas are supposed to last for a million miles. The structural battery pack is welded into the car’s structure, and the battery cells are permanently glued with epoxy into the battery pack.
A question was asked about the twenty-five thousand dollar car. Musk said that Tesla isn’t working on that project at this time, but it’s “on the docket.”
Another question was raised about whether Tesla will apply what it learned about heat pumps in cars to home heating and cooling systems. Nothing was said during that discussion about the recall of all the cars with heat pumps. Musk said that energy conservation is part of Tesla's mission so he does, eventually, want to apply Tesla's expertise about heat pumps to home heating and cooling.
An interesting question was raised about FSD being attached to the car or to the buyer. The questioner thinks it’s attached to the car, but that it should be attached to the buyer. Actually, in some cases, FSD disappears when the buyer sells the car. Musk is not planning on changing that.
Musk expects significant improvement of FSD to occur this year. He said that he’d be shocked if FSD didn’t become safer than a human driver this year.
Tesla insurance is being offered in five states. The people who benefit from it are the ones with excellent safety scores. If you like driving in “Driving Miss Daisy” mode, get a quote from Tesla Insurance. Tesla will give you a discount only if your safety score is truly excellent.
Cyber Truck. Not yet. Be patient.
Energy Storage is going forward with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. These are heavier than nickel-based lithium batteries, but they’re cheaper and they last longer. That’s fine for battery packs that stay in one place and store wind or solar electric energy.
Twitter user @DBurkland put together this excellent outline of the earnings call.
Opening remarks from Elon
Above 50% growth expected in 2022
Overtime Tesla believes FSD to be most profitable offering from Tesla
Elon still believes they will achieve FSD at a level safer than a human being by end of 2022
Value of vehicles expected to dramatically rise more than any other product in history thanks to FSD
More products to be announced in subsequent calls
Scaling & output big focuses for Tesla in 2022
If Tesla were to introduce new vehicles they determined that overall output would decrease so 2022
was focused on supply chain optimization & production
No new vehicles will be introduced in 2022 as they will continue to be parts constrained
Optimus is new robot product and hope is to bring new vehicles and products to market in 2023
Dependent on if they can produce more or less cars
Robot has the potential to be more significant to be bigger than vehicle business over time
4680s
Focus on production of 4680s
4680s are not a constraint on volume plans for 2022
Plan is to deliver first 4680 vehicles in Q1
Big focus is to ramp production of 4680s and improve quality
Tesla expects to continue to be chip limited in 2022 and alleviate in 2023 and then Tesla expects to
then be constrained by battery cell limitations
Q&A
$25k Car - Tesla is not currently working on this however it’s on the docket.
Elon thinks autonomy will be the big answer to transportation instead of a more affordable
EV.
Home HVAC - Tesla views this as part of their mission and will address this problem someday.
Easier problem then to solve when HVAC system is in a house vs a vehicle (not space
constrained)
Confident they can integrate this better than anybody else has before
FSD
Elon believes adding more licensing types for FSD is too complex and will instead focus on
lowering costs for transportation overall
Expects big gains to be made with robotaxi in terms of value
Some significant advancements in FSD stack coming in next few months
Elon will be shocked if they do not achieve FSD being safer than a human driver by the end
of 2022
Dojo
Will be brought online this summer and then it will be a question of how long until it is
more useful for training than a GPU cluster
Elon is waiting for GPU team to tell him Dojo is more powerful before shutting down GPU
cluster
He expects Dojo to surpass GPU cluster power in 2023
Dojo is not required for FSD however it will be important in terms of cost optimization of
training from video clips
Tesla Bot (Optimus)
Tesla expects first use of the bot will be in their factories, first with simple tasks like
moving parts around
Tesla Insurance
Currently offered 5 states in the US
Pushing California hard to allow for informatics insurance
Based on Texas, Tesla Insurance has a high take rate and customers appreciate the feedback
loop
As Teslas continues with their state-by-state rollout they plan to turn their focus to
Europe in late 2022
CyberTruck
Not factory constrained to achieve CyberTruck volume production
Biggest issue is making CyberTruck affordable despite having awesome technology
Goal is still to achieve 250,000 units per year
Energy Storage
Elon believes all energy storage use cases will use non-nickel batteries go forward
Plan is to ramp however supply chain constraints are still top of mind and will limit growth
in near term
Overall Production
Goal is to produce as many cars as possible and Tesla is confident they can hit their growth
goals without introducing a $25k car at this time
10,000 unique parts per car so it is important to continue to drive simplification to reduce
possible supply chain constraints
Batteries
4680 form factory is being worked on by both Tesla and their partners
Main focus is to drive down cost and increase efficiencies
It’s that exciting time again when a major Tesla software update is on the verge of being released. Tesla update 2025.20 is now being tested on employee vehicles, but since Tesla is very strict about sharing updates early, it’s anyone’s guess as to what’s in it.
This update is now reaching employee vehicles, which means it will still be a few weeks before it reaches customers. However, there’s plenty to be excited about. Given the trail of breadcrumbs found in Tesla’s code recently and from recent announcements of upcoming features, there are plenty of hints about what could be in it.
Let’s break it down and see what may be included in Tesla update 2025.20.
Grok
The existing voice command system gets the job done for basic controls, but it’s far from an intelligent, conversational assistant that many have come to expect from their cell phones or other smart devices. The integration of Grok is expected to change that.
Not only is Grok expected to bring a much more reliable system that’s able to parse commands from conversational phrases, but it’ll also drastically expand what the vehicle is capable of understanding and responding to through its voice system.
If you haven’t used Grok, you have several articles on what you can expect. It’ll be a drastic improvement that will reshape the way many of us drive. That may sound like we’re blowing the feature out of proportion, but if you spend a lot of time by yourself in your vehicle, this could have a huge impact on your commute.
Grok could be used as a conversational assistant, a sort of virtual friend who knows a whole lot just about any topic. Sure, you’ll be able to ask it for the weather or stock quotes or when Tesla is holding its next event, but the real power of it is just to be able to carry on conversations about a specific topic.
So here’s what we can expect. A virtual assistant who can execute vehicle commands like opening the glove box, which will be a direct replacement for the voice command system. You’ll also be able to ask general knowledge questions and carry on a conversation about any topic.
The responses won’t be limited to text like they are in the voice command system. Grok will have its voice, just like it does in the Grok app, so you’ll be able to hear your responses, letting you stay focused on the road. However, there likely won’t be a way for Grok to respond with anything except text or voice, for example, it likely won’t be able to display a photo.
Since Grok is replacing the vehicle’s command system and it’s mostly a backend change, we expect it to be available on older vehicles as well, such as those with Intel MCUs.
Grok is close to being released, so if it isn’t included in update 2025.20, it’s expected to be soon afterward, as Grok code has already been found in the previous Tesla update. The code discovered includes UI elements and a personality button like the Grok app.
New Vehicle Keys
With the Robotaxi Network launching as soon as June 12th in Austin and Elon confirming the project is well ahead of schedule, we’re anticipating Tesla will unveil the Robotaxi half of the Tesla app and the in-car interface sometime soon. While we don’t expect to see the in-car interface for both the front and rear screens for vehicles just yet, we could start seeing some other aspects, such as new virtual keys.
Two new keys were found: “Rider Keys,” which allow other drivers to access your vehicle when it is in “Fleet Mode,” and a new type of key called “Pre-delivery.” These keys will presumably let you unlock a vehicle but have limited capabilities. They could allow you to open and inspect your new vehicle, but not start it.
This could remove another human component when picking up your new Tesla.
Trailer Visualizations
Trailer visualizations could be added soon following confirmation from Wes Morril, Cybertruck’s Lead Engineer. Trailers are typically depicted as an additional vehicle or a truck. While the vehicle can accurately detect the trailer, the visualization leaves something to be desired.
Tesla already renders a series of objects in the visualizations, but trailers, along with trains and gates are some of the most requested additions.
Wes Morril also mentioned that Tesla may start rendering Cybertrucks in the visualization. It’s not clear whether he meant that Tesla was updating the truck's 3D model to be a Cybertruck, or if Tesla would display a special Cybertruck model specifically when the vehicle detects a Cybertruck.
While the Cybertruck has a polarizing design, this could be a fun addition. Years ago, Musk commented that Tesla would eventually render other Tesla vehicles as themselves in the visualization, even in their same real-life color, but it seems that Tesla dropped that idea and decided to keep the visualizations simpler.
The feature allows users to create their own custom wrap designs using a Tesla-provided template. It also allows them to create a custom license plate that is displayed in the visualization, letting you create a fun vanity plate or display your actual license plate.
Child Left Behind Detection
Tesla recently launched Child Left Behind support in Europe on the new Model 3. This feature uses the cabin radar to detect if a child has been left behind in a vehicle, and then takes some critical emergency steps. If an unattended child is detected, the vehicle will flash its exterior indicator lights, play an alert tone, and send a notification to your Tesla App. This repeats at regular intervals until you return.
We’re also expecting Tesla to improve this feature by automatically enabling the climate system in the vehicle when it detects a child left alone in the vehicle. In a critical scenario, Tesla previously stated that it would also automatically call emergency services if the driver doesn’t respond to prompts to return to the vehicle.
Since this feature was just added to a single model in select countries in update 2025.14.12, it appears that Tesla wants to collect data before expanding it further to reduce false positives. Since the feature was just rolled out to the public a few days ago, it may be too soon to expand it to other vehicles in update 2025.20, but it’s possible we may see it included in a few more regions or see another model supported.
Smart Child Seats
Rendering of what Tesla's integration could look like
@dkrasniy
Back in 2024, we found some code and preview images for Smart Child Seats, which would let the vehicle communicate with smart child seats that are already available. The seats could communicate with the vehicle about being properly installed and confirming the child is buckled.
They could also provide warnings if the child has been left in the seat too long or if the car seat belt has been unbuckled.Quality of Life Improvements
Emergency Vehicle Alert
Tesla has recently started processing audio data, enabling it to not only detect emergency vehicles through its cameras but also through audio. This capability could allow the vehicle to detect an emergency vehicle much sooner.
Supercharger Dynamic Pricing Support
Not a Tesla App
Tesla recently announced that some Superchargers are transitioning to a new dynamic pricing model, which sets the price based on the number of vehicles charging rather than the time of day.
This new pricing model would adjust the price of these Superchargers based on their actual real-time usage when you begin Supercharging. Your price is locked in when you begin Supercharging and won’t change halfway through, so you know exactly how much you’ll be paying.
This change means that a Supercharger could now potentially be cheapest during the day if few vehicles are using it. However, it could also be more expensive at night if it’s under high usage.
These changes make the charging price a little more fair and should help Supercharger congestion, incentivizing drivers to spread out to other nearby Superchargers that may have lower usage and, therefore, lower costs.
Tesla already showed off what the new interface will look like in the vehicle, so we expect that to be implemented in this upcoming 2025.20 update. The updated Supercharger UI will display an arrow next to the Supercharger price, indicating whether the price is higher or lower than anticipated based on historical usage. It’ll also include a “Low Price” or “High Price” label to help consumers decide.
There will also be a new “Find Lower Price Charging” button that will display nearby Superchargers that have lower prices and are less congested.
The Tesla app recently added support for this new charging model in app update 4.44.5.
Quality of Live Improvements
We could also see some other smaller, quality-of-life improvements from Tesla. First up are some improvements to Car Wash Mode, which will provide an alert for anyone who inadvertently lowers their window during a car wash.
We’re also hoping to see Tire Fill Assist, which will likely check the Bluetooth TPMS while you’re filling your tires. It could also give you audible feedback through the vehicle’s internal speakers or outside speaker (PWS) when the tire is approaching the set limit.
Last, but not least, we’re continuing to hold onto the hope that Tesla adds Steam Support to its entire lineup of vehicles. Ever since removing the additional RAM from the Model S and Model X, Tesla has quietly killed Steam Support - but oddly enough, it has still provided updates for it. We’d love to see SteamOS make an appearance on Tesla vehicles - what’s more futuristic than having your vehicle running Unsupervised FSD while you take a break and do some gaming?
When Is It Coming?
This update just started rolling out to employees, so it usually takes two to three weeks before it starts rolling out to the first public vehicles. Expect this update to start rolling out sometime in June, which just so happens to coincide with Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout.
Following yesterday’s news that the Tesla Robotaxi network is ahead of schedule and set to launch on June 12th, overnight, Elon confirmed that the Robotaxi network is far ahead of expectations.
With Elon back and working full-time at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, we’ll likely receive a lot more updates on what these companies are working on. In this case, Elon confirmed that Tesla has been running autonomous Model Ys with no one in the driver’s seat on Austin’s public streets, with no incidents. According to yesterday’s report, there is still someone in the passenger seat just in case something comes up, but essentially “driverless.”
Elon also confirmed that Tesla’s ambitious plans to have a Model Y deliver itself directly from the factory to a customer, presumably in Austin, will also occur next month.
For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver’s seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents.
A month ahead of schedule.
Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.
While this will likely be geographically limited to the areas around Giga Texas, and potentially, Tesla’s Fremont factory in the future, it is still a great step toward reducing the cost of vehicles.
Public Access by End of June
In a reply, Elon also confirmed that anyone would be able to test out the Robotaxi network by the end of June. While in typical Elon fashion, he didn’t answer the question of whether the network will be invite-only at first, we expect this will likely be the case and it won’t just be anyone who can open the Tesla app and summon a robotaxi.
At the Q1 2025 Earnings Call, Elon stated that the Robotaxi service would only be available to the public in late June or early July, giving Tesla enough time to test with internal audiences, as well as invited testers. This timeline seems to be fairly concrete, but if you’re planning a trip to Austin to check out Robotaxi, we suggest looking at early July, as timelines can still shift.
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