Kimbal Musk Predicts when Driving will be Fully Autonomous
YouTube/Graham Bensinger
Kimbal Musk, stepping out from the shadow of his famous brother, Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, is the focus of a series of interviews on the YouTube channel Graham Bensinger. The video showcases Full Self Driving technology in action, with Musk engaging FSD on his Model S to navigate autonomously to their location. This demonstration, particularly striking to Bensinger, who appears unaware of Tesla's advancements, really illustrates the potential of FSD and how many people don’t understand it.
The Road to Full Autonomy: Challenges and Breakthroughs
However, Musk is candid about the challenges ahead, particularly the regulatory hurdles that Tesla must overcome. He predicts that full autonomy could be achievable within five years, contingent upon navigating the intricate landscape of government regulations and ensuring the technology meets rigorous safety standards.
During the interview, Musk parallels the seismic shift from gas cars to Teslas, like the Blackberry to the iPhone. The host seems unaware of many of Tesla’s features, including asking about the “custom” steering wheel. It is a yoke steering wheel which Musk explains is not merely a design novelty but a strategic step towards the future of autonomous driving. Musk envisions a scenario where traditional steering mechanisms become obsolete, making way for vehicles that drive themselves with minimal human intervention. Drawing an analogy between the shift from Blackberry to iPhone, Musk captures the essence of technological evolution, where radical changes often become the new normal.
The Future of the Automotive Industry: Tesla's Impact
Tesla's journey from the Model S launch to the most recent Cybertruck unveiling encapsulates a decade of unparalleled innovation. Musk highlights the Model S as a hallmark of Tesla's achievements, emphasizing its role not just as an electric vehicle but as a symbol of luxury, performance, and sustainability. His preference for the Model S stems from its spaciousness and pioneering status, which he likens to the revolutionary impact of the Model T Ford.
As interesting as Kimbal Musk's comments were, the short video's most striking element is the lack of awareness the host has about FSD and Tesla. The host is not alone. If you have FSD, you’ve likely seen the same surprised expressions when your car starts navigating independently. It serves as another reminder that Tesla most make the public more aware of the technology and counter the negative attention given to FSD through mainstream media.
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Tesla has begun to reach out to customers in the United States and is offering demo drives of the Cybertruck on an invite-only basis. @brandonhd on X shared the first invite image, and it looks like it's going out quite quickly to multiple locations that have Cybertrucks on display.
Up until now, display vehicles have been for just that – looking, but no touching. Some Tesla delivery centers and showrooms have also allowed viewers to take a seat inside and open it up, but most are still locked away behind the velvet rope.
It’s exciting to see that Tesla has begun to demo them – and it can only be so long until demo drives open up to everyone.
Advisor-led Demo
This Demo Drive is led by a Tesla Advisor – while you’re driving, the advisor will be in the passenger seat, walking you through the experience. They’ll explain steer-by-wire, off-road controls, and will introduce new-to-Tesla buyers to all the features that are currently available.
The list of locations so far for demo drives appears to be fairly limited, but we will hopefully see demo drives roll out throughout the United States, and eventually Canada too. Here is the current list of city/state locations that have seen demo drive invites.
Actually Smart Summon, the successor to Tesla’s Smart Summon feature, has been confirmed to be coming as soon as next month as per Elon Musk. Colloquially known as “ASS”, Actually Smart Summon is supposed to improve on the regular Smart Summon capabilities, which have historically used ultrasonic sensors (USS) to navigate parking lots.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon, and we’re quite excited about what other features will be unlocked once it finally shows up at our doorstep.
Vision-based Improvements
ASS is supposed to bring Smart Summon to vehicles that don’t have USS – using Tesla Vision. Most recently, Tesla has brought Autopark to vehicles without USS, and Vision-based Autopark has been a huge success. It is faster, more reliable, and smoother than the older USS-based solution. It can also park and maneuver in tighter locations.
Today, Smart Summon is sometimes useful at best, usually a party trick, or downright dangerous at worst. It’s excellent and best used in straight lines, where you have a clear line of sight of the vehicle, and can stop it if doesn’t see an obstacle.
I used Smart Summon today, just before writing this article – my 2022 Model Y (with USS) – did manage to show up just fine – in a straight-line location from where I was parked, after exiting the parking spot fairly cleanly. However, I’ve previously used Smart Summon and have had the vehicle turn towards obstacles, such as cart returns or curbs. Overall, it’s a sometimes-useful feature that has a lot of drawbacks right now.
Smart Summon is also restricted to a certain distance – and it's pretty small. The max distance is shorter than most parking lots, being only about 215 ft (65m). If you’re lucky enough to park close, it's very useful to bring your car right to you.
Actually Smart Summon
ASS will bring FSD V12-like capabilities to Smart Summon – the vehicle will primarily use Vision to drive toward you (or the location you’ve indicated). ASS has been supposed to be coming since about September 2022 and has seen many delays – we’re almost at the 2-year point today.
We’re looking forward to Actually Smart Summon being able to bring the vehicle – safely – right to you. ASS is also one of the key steps towards bringing some other cool features that Elon Musk has previously mentioned – Park Seek and Banish Autopark.
We’re also hopeful that Actually Smart Summon will increase the maximum range a vehicle can be summoned, because the current range is fairly small. Alongside Park Seek and Banish Autopark, we’re closing in on a Robotaxi-based future.
Park Seek and Banish Autopark
When the FSD v12.4 showed up, Elon also mentioned that going forward, vehicles would automatically park themselves when arriving in a parking lot – Park Seek – and that if you got out of the car at the entrance to a business, you could get it to automatically park itself in the parking lot – Banish Autopark. These are two features that are needed for Robotaxi to work – which itself is delayed to October 10th of this year. We’re looking quite forward to them – as in combination with Actually Smart Summon, Tesla has reached the cusp of vehicle autonomy.
A vehicle that arrives, driverless, at the location you’re at, then drives somewhere, parks itself there, and waits for you – is the definition of a Robotaxi.
While we’re likely to have to wait for Banish Autopark and Park Seek just a bit longer, Actually Smart Summon being around the corner is exciting! Gone will be the days of having to run out to your car when you forgot your umbrella – your car will just come right to you instead.
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