Is Tesla ready to add high-resolution radar to its vehicles?

By Kevin Armstrong
Tesla appears ready to add a high-resolution radar to its vehicles
Tesla appears ready to add a high-resolution radar to its vehicles
Tesla

An unidentified part has appeared on Tesla's Parts Catalog, and the internet is confused. Twitter user, and popular Tesla hacker, @greentheonly spotted the item on a diagram.

This mysterious item is marked but suspiciously not given a name, a part number or description. However, given his experience with the inner workings of these vehicles, Green believes it is a new Tesla radar. In a follow-up tweet, he doubled down on his stance, saying the part matches the high-resolution radar Tesla registered with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission in June.

This latest twist has left hundreds of Reddit users on Tesla's unofficial community scratching their heads. The comment voted up the highest is by iphoneman321, who posted: Radar is dead, long live radar.

A year ago, Tesla announced it was transitioning to Tesla Vision, which is camera-based technology without a radar's assistance or perhaps interference. The support section of Tesla's webpage reads: Beginning with deliveries in May 2021, Model 3 and Model Y vehicles built for the North American market will no longer be equipped with radar. Instead, these will be the first Tesla vehicles to rely on camera vision and neural net processing to deliver Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot, Full-Self Driving and certain active safety features.

Elon Musk clearly prefers the cameras to collect data to maneuver the vehicle, not radar. In April of 2021, he responded to a tweet from @WholeMarsBlog that questioned the removal of radar. It read: Can you tell us more about your thinking behind the pure vision approach? Lots of people arguing no radar is a step backwards. Why did you guys decide it was better not to use it? Musk responded: When radar and vision disagree, which one do you believe? Vision has much more precision, so better to double down on vision than do sensor fusion.

But in an interview with Electrek later that year, he left the door open to bring radar back to Tesla. Electrek quoted Musk saying, "A very high-resolution radar would be better than pure vision, but such a radar does not exist. I mean vision with high-res radar would be better than pure vision."

Musk reiterated that comment in February through Twitter: Only very high resolution radar is relevant.

Tesla's AI Day Part II is on September 30, and Musk has promised "many cool updates." He has also said that Tesla's work on Full Self Driving has been ground-breaking in artificial intelligence. Therefore, it is conceivable that the CEO introduces a new high-res radar to the world during the next AI Day.

Tesla's Shareholder Event: Vote Results And Video Replay

By Karan Singh
Not a Tesla App

Yesterday on X, Elon Musk posted that the two key resolutions for the upcoming Shareholder Meeting were both passing by wide margins – and would subsequently go on to pass at today’s Shareholder Meeting.

Musk Compensation Package and Tesla’s Move to Texas

The two key resolutions, one on Elon Musk’s performance-based compensation package, and the other on Tesla’s re-incorporation to Texas, both passed in the preliminary stages. Each required a minimum number of ‘Yes’ votes to pass at the Shareholder Meeting.

The performance-based compensation package only required a simple majority – a certain number of Yes votes, with abstentions not counting as Nos. On the other hand, the move to Texas required a full majority, with abstentions counting as Nos.

Elon Musk declared his victory on X in these two key votes, and Tesla’s share prices moved favorably in post-market, and then again in pre-market trading. This is a positive indicator for Tesla and Elon Musk. On X, Elon recently agreed that given he has received a controlling stake in Tesla, he would work towards making Tesla the most valuable company on Earth.

Other Resolutions

The first five proposals are Tesla corporate proposals, while the remainder are shareholder proposals, and are covered in the table below. For more details, you can read Tesla’s Proxy Package. The proposals are ordered below in the order of presentation.

Resolution

Status

Elect 2 Directors for a 3 Year term (James Murdock, Kimball Musk)

PASS

Non-Binding Advisory-basis Executive Compensation

PASS

Move Tesla to Texas

PASS

Elon Musk’s Compensation Package

PASS

Appoint PricewaterhouseCoopers as Tesla’s accounting firm.

PASS

Reduce Director Terms to 1 Year

FAIL

Simple Majority Stockholder Voting

FAIL

Annual Report on Anti-Harassment and Discrimination

PASS

Freedom of Association and Collective Bargaining Policy

PASS

Report on EM Radiation and Wireless Technologies, and effects on humans.

PASS

Adopting targets and reports for sustainability metrics for executive compensation

PASS

Moratorium on sourcing minerals from deep-sea mining.

PASS

Shareholder Meeting Event

You can view Tesla’s shareholder meeting below:

Tesla Likely to Launch Robotaxi Service in Next 5 Years, May Account for 90% of Future Profit

By Karan Singh
ARK Invest

Tesla is on the verge of its Robotaxi announcement event on 8/8, and major investors like Ark Invest are examining and refreshing their bull case scenarios.

Robotaxi as a Focus

Ark Invest sees Robotaxi as a focus of Tesla’s ongoing business and sees Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing revenue to net nearly $1 trillion in 2029. In comparison, they estimate Tesla’s vehicle sales to account for $0.4 trillion in revenue. With this bull case, Ark Invest also sees Tesla’s share price soaring to $3,100 by 2029. Ark Invest’s bear case sees the share price moving to $2,000 and robotaxi netting $0.63 billion in revenue.

Ark Invest gives Tesla a 58% chance of launching its robotaxi service in 2025, and a 38% chance in 2026. It’s clear that Tesla’s future lies in operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles and the question is just when it will happen. Given FSD’s massive improvements between FSD V11 and FSD V12, there is a possibility of Tesla meeting these estimates, although a lot depends on how fast improvements will continue to come. While FSD V12 is impressive, it’s still a long way from a true autonomous vehicle.

Rate of Improvement

Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors
Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors
ARK Invest

Ark’s case is focused on the fact that FSD’s rapid improvement will continue, and a lot of that may be determined with the next few releases, including FSD 12.4.1, v12.5, and v12.6. When comparing Tesla to autonomous vehicles, Tesla has a drastic lead in miles driven, in fact, it’s so large that you can barely even see Tesla’s competitors. Tesla is at 1.3 billion miles driven with FSD, while the closest competitors are just reaching 15 million autonomous miles driven. While there’s a drastic difference in capabilities between Tesla’s FSD and autonomous vehicles such as Google’s Waymo, Tesla has the ability to gather data 86 times quicker.

Training data is key to building autonomous vehicles, and Tesla is currently the king of vehicle-related data.

Services Company

We previously wrote about whether Tesla’s future will be as a car company or a services company – and major investors such as Ark Invest and Morgan Stanley see Tesla’s AI services as a major driver of business in the future, and the focus of future revenue and profits.

Robotaxi, as both a service and as a physical product, has the opportunity to shake up markets in a unique way, providing quick, clean, and safe transportation between local destinations in urban areas, which could quickly outcompete traditional services like taxis, and tech competitors like Uber or Lyft. The market for robotaxi is untapped and massive, but Tesla isn’t the only one chasing the goal.

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