Tesla is on the verge of its Robotaxi announcement event on 8/8, and major investors like Ark Invest are examining and refreshing their bull case scenarios.
Robotaxi as a Focus
Ark Invest sees Robotaxi as a focus of Tesla’s ongoing business and sees Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing revenue to net nearly $1 trillion in 2029. In comparison, they estimate Tesla’s vehicle sales to account for $0.4 trillion in revenue. With this bull case, Ark Invest also sees Tesla’s share price soaring to $3,100 by 2029. Ark Invest’s bear case sees the share price moving to $2,000 and robotaxi netting $0.63 billion in revenue.
Ark Invest gives Tesla a 58% chance of launching its robotaxi service in 2025, and a 38% chance in 2026. It’s clear that Tesla’s future lies in operating a fleet of autonomous vehicles and the question is just when it will happen. Given FSD’s massive improvements between FSD V11 and FSD V12, there is a possibility of Tesla meeting these estimates, although a lot depends on how fast improvements will continue to come. While FSD V12 is impressive, it’s still a long way from a true autonomous vehicle.
Rate of Improvement
Miles driven by Tesla FSD versus autonomous competitors
ARK Invest
Ark’s case is focused on the fact that FSD’s rapid improvement will continue, and a lot of that may be determined with the next few releases, including FSD 12.4.1, v12.5, and v12.6. When comparing Tesla to autonomous vehicles, Tesla has a drastic lead in miles driven, in fact, it’s so large that you can barely even see Tesla’s competitors. Tesla is at 1.3 billion miles driven with FSD, while the closest competitors are just reaching 15 million autonomous miles driven. While there’s a drastic difference in capabilities between Tesla’s FSD and autonomous vehicles such as Google’s Waymo, Tesla has the ability to gather data 86 times quicker.
Training data is key to building autonomous vehicles, and Tesla is currently the king of vehicle-related data.
Services Company
We previously wrote about whether Tesla’s future will be as a car company or a services company – and major investors such as Ark Invest and Morgan Stanley see Tesla’s AI services as a major driver of business in the future, and the focus of future revenue and profits.
Robotaxi, as both a service and as a physical product, has the opportunity to shake up markets in a unique way, providing quick, clean, and safe transportation between local destinations in urban areas, which could quickly outcompete traditional services like taxis, and tech competitors like Uber or Lyft. The market for robotaxi is untapped and massive, but Tesla isn’t the only one chasing the goal.
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Tesla’s much-anticipated official entry into the Indian market appears to be shifting to a higher gear, with recent reports from Business Standard (paywall) indicating that Tesla is now looking into establishing Gigafactory India. Business Standard points to Tesla exploring land options in Satara, Maharashtra.
Satara is about 250km (155 mi) from the Port of Mumbai, placing it in an excellent location to easily receive parts and materials from other countries, as well as ship completed vehicles elsewhere around the world. The potential facility is reportedly planned as a “Completely Knocked Down” or CKD assembly plant, which means that Tesla would import parts and then assemble them locally.
This is key to Tesla’s strategy in addressing India’s traditionally high import tariffs on fully built vehicles, which have been a major hurdle for Tesla in the past. This push aligns with India’s updated EV policy, which calls for reduced import duties on EVs priced at $35,000 USD or above for companies that commit to investing at least $500m USD in local manufacturing facilities between 2024 and 2027.
According to the report, Tesla is prepared to invest substantially more, with figures around $2-3 billion USD cited for a plant capable of doing final assembly on up to 500,000 vehicles. Tesla supposedly aims to roll out the first locally assembled vehicle from the facility no later than March 2026.
Building the Indian Foundation
Beyond just manufacturing plans, Tesla has been actively laying the groundwork for its future Indian operations. Tesla has reportedly finalized leases for its first showrooms in Mumbai and Delhi - two of the largest cities in India. An office space in Mumbai to headquarter Indian operations is also on that leasing list.
Tesla has also begun to hire its initial tranche of employees, with over 30 positions already posted. Tesla is also hiring Autopilot Vehicle Operators in several locations, indicating that Tesla intends to test at least the FSD suite in one of the most complex traffic situations around the world.
Elon Musk also confirmed that he plans to visit India and speak to the Indian Prime Minister, likely to broker a deal focusing on building out Tesla’s presence and bringing new technology to the country.
The road to India has not been without its complexities. Reports confirmed the resignation of Prashanth Menon, Tesla's India head, with oversight of Indian operations temporarily shifting to Tesla's China team. Furthermore, earlier discussions with potential joint venture partners, such as Hyderabad-based Megha Engineering for land acquisition, reportedly did not materialize, leading Tesla to explore other avenues and locations like Satara.
Despite all the setbacks, Tesla’s efforts indicate that they are more determined than ever to make a formal and official entry into the Indian market.
Tesla’s software updates often contain far more than the release notes show, whether they’re undocumented features or preparation for the next big thing. The 2025 Spring Update is no exception - it’s filled with undocumented changes and, of course, new, inaccessible code that points to upcoming features.
Tesla hacker greentheonly on X has been digging into update 2025.14 and found some intriguing additions and hints about what’s coming next, so let’s take a look.
Grok Incoming
New hidden UI elements have been found pointing towards the integration of a Grok-powered smart assistant for Teslas. This includes references to a “personality” button, just like the Grok app. Tesla is likely hard at work on an advanced conversational AI and integrating the ability to control your vehicle.
Grok is the smart assistant that’s expected to replace the ancient voice commands that are available today. However, expect anything beyond vehicle commands to require Tesla’s Premium Connectivity.
While none of these new elements are active just yet, it is a good indication that it is likely on its way quite soon.
Siren Detection UI Removed
Code related to user-facing elements for siren detection has now been removed. We’ve confirmed that the orange dot is still in place with the Spring Update, but elements related to future changes and a UI for siren detection have since been removed from the code base.
Removals don’t indicate much - Tesla could be refactoring the code while they’re working on this or have changed directions on how to implement a future.
Insights into the New Dashcam Viewer
More significantly, for users on HW3, Green reported that the newly improved Dashcam Viewer isn’t just an improved version of the video viewer, but it was built from the ground up, and it’s now web-based. This technical detail explains why the updated viewer is only rolling out to AMD Ryzen vehicles and not older, Intel-based vehicles. HTML-based apps are often quicker to develop but usually require more resources to perform smoothly, which may be why we’re seeing the Ryzen infotainment system requirement.
This likely means that the new Dashcam Viewer won’t arrive on Intel vehicles in a future update unless Tesla can optimize the viewer enough to perform adequately on the older hardware.
HW3 vehicles already missed out on the new B-pillar recording feature. While Green thinks it’s technically possible to bring this feature to HW3 cars, unknown technical issues are likely preventing it. Older HW3 vehicles without a USB port in the glovebox only include USB 2 ports, limiting bandwidth, which could be one of the reasons, among others.
New Key Types
Perhaps a hint at Tesla’s third-party Robotaxi fleet ambitions, Tesla is building out new types of keys.
Rider Keys: These new keys appear to be designed to allow designated riders to access vehicles that are operating in “fleet mode.” This functionality sounds very much like what will be needed to allow Robotaxi customers to access a vehicle temporarily while they’re being given a ride.
Pre-Delivery Keys: Another new key type found is “pre-delivery.” While we don’t have an exact purpose nailed down quite yet, we’re assuming this could potentially allow new owners limited access to their vehicles for inspection prior to officially accepting delivery.
That’s plenty of interesting stuff found in the 2025 Spring Update - and we’re excited to see even more in just a few short weeks once Tesla launches their Robotaxi network in Austin.
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