while tesla has previously stated that they’ll be able to achieve unsupervised FSD on hardware 4, we’re now wondering if it’ll actually be achieved on AI5 first and only backported to HW4.
This does not make any sense to me, and seems like a lot of assumptions from the writer of the article. Sure, maybe they have more info than we do, and this is what will inevitably end up happening. But I think it is more of a glass half empty viewpoint than anything based on facts.
Think about it, right now Robotaxi is nearly unsupervised, emphasis on nearly. And from what we know, AI5 will not be ready until mid to end of 2026. So unless Tesla plans on rushing AI5's release to Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, to meet their goal of having no safety drivers or monitors in their Robotaxi. Then it does not make sense to me that unsupervised won't be achieved on AI4 first.
Now, if they mean unsupervised FSD on regular customer cars, then that is probably more likely, but I would still be doubtful of that claim. Personally, I think this will be a case, as we saw towards the release of V12 of FSD with AI3 and AI4. They will be in feature and update (AI4 and AI5) parity for a while, and then eventually AI5 will branch off of AI4 with more capabilities/safety, and AI4 will be left behind, similar to how AI3 is now.
I could be entirely wrong, and my optimism may be getting the better of me, but I truly believe that unsupervised will be achieved on AI4 first. And even if it isn't, I can't say I would be upset even if the car stopped receiving FSD updates soon. It already is at the point where it's pretty much intervention free for most of my drives, and only occasional needs to take over for small errors unrelated to safety. So assuming we do get at least a few more updates, I can't see myself being upset with not getting unsupervised FSD for a while. Then again, I never purchased it outright, and I only pay for the subscription. So in the worst case, I could just save my money by not using it anymore.
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